Solarbe光伏行情信息中心数据，6月以来多晶硅报价走势持续走高，国内多晶硅厂大多没有跟进涨价。随着组件厂的扩充和订单饱满，进口原料供不应求。国内原料终于上调了报价。
今（9月8日）上午11时，中国多数知名多晶硅厂商更新了其太阳能级别原生多晶硅报价，最高报价达到550/KG，最低报价也达到490/KG，单月涨幅达到25%。156单晶硅片报价35元/片，156多晶硅片报价30元/片，125单晶硅片报价21元/片。
近日媒体报道温州财团持币炒作多晶硅，是导致多晶硅价格上涨的推手之一，而价格能否报价高价位运转，还有待继续观望。（来源：Solarbe光伏行情信息中心）
http://www.solarbe.com/news/content/2010/9/13245.html
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
德國太陽能政策動態
市佔率高達5成的德國太陽光電市場，在2010年7月中已公布第3季下砍13%、第4季砍16%的新補助策略，隨後2011年下砍補助的傳聞在德國市場亦開始被散播，雖然一如過往，這些傳聞可能是德國政府正在著手研擬的策略，即使公布也可能因為民眾或業者的反彈而更動。
不過，傳聞中，德國政府開始研擬2011年新的太陽光電補助案，可能開始實施補助安裝量上限(Cap)，意即一旦達到政府預設補助安裝量，即停止所有的補助。
另外，德國政府更決定把目前17座核能發電廠，從原計劃2020年除役延後12年，以渡過採用再生能源的緩衝期並增加收入。
核能發電廠延後除役，意謂著再生能源成為主力發電的時間表也將跟著延後，預估該項決定將會影響再生能源的需求。
http://digitimes.com.tw/TW/DT/N/shwnws.asp?CnlID=10&id=0000198661_ZY97PH415S4RMO2S23H8M
不過，傳聞中，德國政府開始研擬2011年新的太陽光電補助案，可能開始實施補助安裝量上限(Cap)，意即一旦達到政府預設補助安裝量，即停止所有的補助。
另外，德國政府更決定把目前17座核能發電廠，從原計劃2020年除役延後12年，以渡過採用再生能源的緩衝期並增加收入。
核能發電廠延後除役，意謂著再生能源成為主力發電的時間表也將跟著延後，預估該項決定將會影響再生能源的需求。
http://digitimes.com.tw/TW/DT/N/shwnws.asp?CnlID=10&id=0000198661_ZY97PH415S4RMO2S23H8M
EPIA：明年歐洲太陽能市場恐減3GWp
正在西班牙舉行的第25屆太陽能展(25th EU PVSEC)中，歐洲太陽能產業協會(EPIA)發表未來5年全球最大的歐洲市場預估值，指出在2010年快速成長後，2011年歐洲市場將因補助減少而使歐洲年需求量將降30億瓦、年降27%，預估一直到2013年才能站上2010年的水準。主要來自德國市場的異動，需求下降的部分期由日本及美國等市場來接棒。
正在進行的第25屆EU PVSEC，EPIA針對從2010年到2014年歐洲太陽能市場需求所作的預測顯示，2010年歐洲市場總安裝量約達115.15億瓦，相較2009年的56.05億瓦成長約達1倍，2011年歐洲安裝量預估達84.05億瓦。
受德國政府政策導向的影響，歐洲市場2011年太陽能安裝量約降低30億瓦。法新社
預估2012年歐洲市場安裝量約為96.90億瓦，年增率約15.28%、2013年再站上2010年安裝水準達117.95億瓦，年增率為21.72%、2014年達134.75億瓦，年增率為14.24%。
太陽能業者表示，2010年歐洲市場的安裝量約增1倍，主要即是2009年受到金融風暴影響使系統安裝受到限制，2010年除了景氣回春外，再加上最大的德國市場計劃在2010年下半年調降補助，刺激上半年需求快衝，使得2010年歐洲市場有相當大的年成長量。
但德國在2010年下半年調降補助後，2011年將再降補助，預估將持續影響整體歐洲市場需求，相較2010年的安裝量，2011年約降了30億瓦、約當2010年3個日本市場的安裝量，期待歐洲所流失的需求由日本及美國等其它市場來取代。
太陽能業者表示，全球市佔率高達5成的德國市場，受到2011年將再下砍補助的影響，普遍被認為步入成長倒退或遲緩期，預估2010年總安裝量接近70億瓦、但2011年恐怕安裝量只剩40億瓦。
政府政策導向及變更，是影響德國太陽光電市場波動的最主要因素，除了2009年新內閣上任後一再追加太陽光電補助下砍費率外，德國政府近日更決定把目前17座核能發電廠，從原計劃2020年除役延後12年，以渡過採用再生能源的緩衝期並增加收入。
太陽能業者認為，核能發電廠延後除役，意謂著再生能源成為主力發電的時間表也將跟著延後，預估該項決定將會影響再生能源的需求，尤其目前看來發展最成熟的風力及太陽能等再生能源市場都會因為該項決定而受到影響。
正在進行的第25屆EU PVSEC，EPIA針對從2010年到2014年歐洲太陽能市場需求所作的預測顯示，2010年歐洲市場總安裝量約達115.15億瓦，相較2009年的56.05億瓦成長約達1倍，2011年歐洲安裝量預估達84.05億瓦。
受德國政府政策導向的影響，歐洲市場2011年太陽能安裝量約降低30億瓦。法新社
預估2012年歐洲市場安裝量約為96.90億瓦，年增率約15.28%、2013年再站上2010年安裝水準達117.95億瓦，年增率為21.72%、2014年達134.75億瓦，年增率為14.24%。
太陽能業者表示，2010年歐洲市場的安裝量約增1倍，主要即是2009年受到金融風暴影響使系統安裝受到限制，2010年除了景氣回春外，再加上最大的德國市場計劃在2010年下半年調降補助，刺激上半年需求快衝，使得2010年歐洲市場有相當大的年成長量。
但德國在2010年下半年調降補助後，2011年將再降補助，預估將持續影響整體歐洲市場需求，相較2010年的安裝量，2011年約降了30億瓦、約當2010年3個日本市場的安裝量，期待歐洲所流失的需求由日本及美國等其它市場來取代。
太陽能業者表示，全球市佔率高達5成的德國市場，受到2011年將再下砍補助的影響，普遍被認為步入成長倒退或遲緩期，預估2010年總安裝量接近70億瓦、但2011年恐怕安裝量只剩40億瓦。
政府政策導向及變更，是影響德國太陽光電市場波動的最主要因素，除了2009年新內閣上任後一再追加太陽光電補助下砍費率外，德國政府近日更決定把目前17座核能發電廠，從原計劃2020年除役延後12年，以渡過採用再生能源的緩衝期並增加收入。
太陽能業者認為，核能發電廠延後除役，意謂著再生能源成為主力發電的時間表也將跟著延後，預估該項決定將會影響再生能源的需求，尤其目前看來發展最成熟的風力及太陽能等再生能源市場都會因為該項決定而受到影響。
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Decoding airline ticket costs
Airline ticket prices often seem like a brain-teaser with little logic. From Chicago, a flight to Miami is more than twice as far as a flight to Memphis, but the shorter Memphis flight costs 25% more on average. Fly to Washington, D.C., from Hartford, Conn., and the average fare is nearly three times as high as if you flew to nearby Baltimore from Hartford, according to government data for the first quarter of this year.
The fares travelers pay typically have little relation to how far you fly, even though airline costs are largely dependent on the length of a flight. Long trips often cost less than short trips. Flights of the same time and distance can have radically different prices.
David Dugan's defense company paid US Airways $1,358 for a non-refundable coach, round-trip ticket this week to Hartford from Washington. And yet Mr. Dugan had just bought $900 round-trip tickets for a family trip from Washington to Spain.
"It's crazy," he said. "We're going to Europe and it's cheaper than going to Hartford."
Airline pricing is enormously complex, often confounding and angering travelers with prices that change several times a day, carry an almanac full of rules, restrictions and penalties and have huge disparities in the price of a trip in different markets or even just different days.
The price you pay for a ticket is driven by a number of variables: competition, types of passengers, the route and operating costs. But the biggest factor, by far, is whether discount airlines fly in a market. Low-cost carriers often set the price in markets because competitors feel compelled to match that price or risk losing customers and flying empty seats. And when they aren't there, big airlines behave radically differently when setting prices.
"It's the number of competitors and the quality of the competition," said airfare analyst and consultant Bob Harrell.
The kinds of travelers in a market heavily influence what prices airlines charge as well. If the route has lots of business travelers—like Hartford to Washington—then airlines set prices high knowing customers will be less sensitive to higher prices. If the route is populated by price-sensitive travelers —think Florida cities and Las Vegas—then airlines set prices low in order to fill up planes.
"Airlines are just saying, 'What is the most I can get for that seat?' " said Bradley Seitz, president of Topaz International Ltd., which tracks and audits airfares for major corporations.
On the Hartford-Washington route, what they can get is a lot: The average price in the first quarter was $648 round-trip, or 99 cents per mile, according to the Department of Transportation, making that route one of the most expensive in the country per-mile. Meanwhile, Southwest Airlines charges far lower prices between Hartford and Baltimore, about 40 miles north of Washington, so the average ticket price was $236, or 42 cents per mile.
When Andrew Kowal made a trip to Washington from Hartford for meetings at the Capitol, his corporate travel department asked if he would fly to Baltimore instead. It made little sense to him to rent a car or buy a round-trip Amtrak ticket to get to Washington instead of simply flying where you want to go.
"Think about the resources used if I went to Baltimore," he said. "How could that be cheaper?"
Business travelers pay more than twice as much per mile, on average, to fly from New York to London as they do from New York to Los Angeles, according to Topaz. In the second quarter, the average round-trip from New York's Kennedy Airport to Los Angeles International Airport was $1,088, while the average ticket from JFK to London's Heathrow Airport was $3,610, Topaz found in checking ticket purchases for companies. ( I doubt it)
Not only are business routes more expensive, but the London-bound travelers are more likely to buy business-class seats than the L.A. fliers. It's more expensive, too, for airlines to operate internationally, and international ticket taxes are higher.
But the reality is that big airlines that fly to both Los Angeles and London from New York face low-fare airline competition on the domestic route, but not the international route, and so they charge far more. Bigger competitors often match prices of discount carriers like Virgin America, which had 20% of all passengers flying between JFK and LAX in the first quarter, according to consulting firm Oliver Wyman Group's PlaneStats database.
And when there's not low-fare competition, prices soar. The most-expensive average domestic ticket in the first quarter was $786 for round-trip flights between San Francisco and Philadelphia, according to the DOT. That 2,521-mile route is dominated by United and US Airways, who are competitors but also partners in the Star Alliance. Fly to Boston from San Francisco—183 miles farther by air than Philadelphia—and you paid an average $296 less round-trip in the first quarter, according to DOT. The difference: JetBlue Airways has 17% of the San Francisco-Boston market, but none of the San Francisco-Philadelphia market.
High fixed costs do make short routes more expensive, per mile. But airport costs like terminal rents and landing fees and even the expense of buying or leasing jets, pale in comparison to the two biggest expenses at airlines: labor and fuel. Both go higher as flights get longer.
When the airline industry was regulated, the government set prices sensitive to distance, and buying tickets—far more expensive in the regulated days because airlines were guaranteed profits—was a bit like going to the gas pump.
Now, airfares are more like Coca-Cola, says Rob Britton, a former American Airlines executive who now lectures at business schools. "How much does Coke cost? The reality is it depends on where you are. You pay a lot more at the cineplex than you do at the grocery store," he said. "Charge what the market will bear."
That means distance has little to do with pricing. Cincinnati to New York happens to be exactly the same distance by air as Long Beach, Calif., to Salt Lake City, and both routes include a hub for Delta Air Lines at one end. The similarities end there. For Cincinnati-New York, a market rich with business travelers where Delta carries 98% of all passengers, travelers paid an average 42 cents a mile in the first quarter, according to the DOT. For the Long-Beach-Salt Lake route, Delta competes with jetBlue Airways and charged only half as much.
Delta says prices on each route are based on "market dynamics," including distance, operating costs and competition. US Airways declined to comment on its pricing strategy "for competitive reasons.''
High prices do catch the attention of low-priced competitors. In the first quarter this year, the most expensive market in the country, per mile, was Boston to Philadelphia, a US Airways-dominated route, where the average fare was a whopping $684. Southwest began serving that route in June.
And now? US Airways' highest coach fare is $281 round-trip—$400 less than its first-quarter average fare.
The fares travelers pay typically have little relation to how far you fly, even though airline costs are largely dependent on the length of a flight. Long trips often cost less than short trips. Flights of the same time and distance can have radically different prices.
David Dugan's defense company paid US Airways $1,358 for a non-refundable coach, round-trip ticket this week to Hartford from Washington. And yet Mr. Dugan had just bought $900 round-trip tickets for a family trip from Washington to Spain.
"It's crazy," he said. "We're going to Europe and it's cheaper than going to Hartford."
Airline pricing is enormously complex, often confounding and angering travelers with prices that change several times a day, carry an almanac full of rules, restrictions and penalties and have huge disparities in the price of a trip in different markets or even just different days.
The price you pay for a ticket is driven by a number of variables: competition, types of passengers, the route and operating costs. But the biggest factor, by far, is whether discount airlines fly in a market. Low-cost carriers often set the price in markets because competitors feel compelled to match that price or risk losing customers and flying empty seats. And when they aren't there, big airlines behave radically differently when setting prices.
"It's the number of competitors and the quality of the competition," said airfare analyst and consultant Bob Harrell.
The kinds of travelers in a market heavily influence what prices airlines charge as well. If the route has lots of business travelers—like Hartford to Washington—then airlines set prices high knowing customers will be less sensitive to higher prices. If the route is populated by price-sensitive travelers —think Florida cities and Las Vegas—then airlines set prices low in order to fill up planes.
"Airlines are just saying, 'What is the most I can get for that seat?' " said Bradley Seitz, president of Topaz International Ltd., which tracks and audits airfares for major corporations.
On the Hartford-Washington route, what they can get is a lot: The average price in the first quarter was $648 round-trip, or 99 cents per mile, according to the Department of Transportation, making that route one of the most expensive in the country per-mile. Meanwhile, Southwest Airlines charges far lower prices between Hartford and Baltimore, about 40 miles north of Washington, so the average ticket price was $236, or 42 cents per mile.
When Andrew Kowal made a trip to Washington from Hartford for meetings at the Capitol, his corporate travel department asked if he would fly to Baltimore instead. It made little sense to him to rent a car or buy a round-trip Amtrak ticket to get to Washington instead of simply flying where you want to go.
"Think about the resources used if I went to Baltimore," he said. "How could that be cheaper?"
Business travelers pay more than twice as much per mile, on average, to fly from New York to London as they do from New York to Los Angeles, according to Topaz. In the second quarter, the average round-trip from New York's Kennedy Airport to Los Angeles International Airport was $1,088, while the average ticket from JFK to London's Heathrow Airport was $3,610, Topaz found in checking ticket purchases for companies. ( I doubt it)
Not only are business routes more expensive, but the London-bound travelers are more likely to buy business-class seats than the L.A. fliers. It's more expensive, too, for airlines to operate internationally, and international ticket taxes are higher.
But the reality is that big airlines that fly to both Los Angeles and London from New York face low-fare airline competition on the domestic route, but not the international route, and so they charge far more. Bigger competitors often match prices of discount carriers like Virgin America, which had 20% of all passengers flying between JFK and LAX in the first quarter, according to consulting firm Oliver Wyman Group's PlaneStats database.
And when there's not low-fare competition, prices soar. The most-expensive average domestic ticket in the first quarter was $786 for round-trip flights between San Francisco and Philadelphia, according to the DOT. That 2,521-mile route is dominated by United and US Airways, who are competitors but also partners in the Star Alliance. Fly to Boston from San Francisco—183 miles farther by air than Philadelphia—and you paid an average $296 less round-trip in the first quarter, according to DOT. The difference: JetBlue Airways has 17% of the San Francisco-Boston market, but none of the San Francisco-Philadelphia market.
High fixed costs do make short routes more expensive, per mile. But airport costs like terminal rents and landing fees and even the expense of buying or leasing jets, pale in comparison to the two biggest expenses at airlines: labor and fuel. Both go higher as flights get longer.
When the airline industry was regulated, the government set prices sensitive to distance, and buying tickets—far more expensive in the regulated days because airlines were guaranteed profits—was a bit like going to the gas pump.
Now, airfares are more like Coca-Cola, says Rob Britton, a former American Airlines executive who now lectures at business schools. "How much does Coke cost? The reality is it depends on where you are. You pay a lot more at the cineplex than you do at the grocery store," he said. "Charge what the market will bear."
That means distance has little to do with pricing. Cincinnati to New York happens to be exactly the same distance by air as Long Beach, Calif., to Salt Lake City, and both routes include a hub for Delta Air Lines at one end. The similarities end there. For Cincinnati-New York, a market rich with business travelers where Delta carries 98% of all passengers, travelers paid an average 42 cents a mile in the first quarter, according to the DOT. For the Long-Beach-Salt Lake route, Delta competes with jetBlue Airways and charged only half as much.
Delta says prices on each route are based on "market dynamics," including distance, operating costs and competition. US Airways declined to comment on its pricing strategy "for competitive reasons.''
High prices do catch the attention of low-priced competitors. In the first quarter this year, the most expensive market in the country, per mile, was Boston to Philadelphia, a US Airways-dominated route, where the average fare was a whopping $684. Southwest began serving that route in June.
And now? US Airways' highest coach fare is $281 round-trip—$400 less than its first-quarter average fare.
全球最大太陽能電池廠動工 新日光將快速躍居前3大
太陽能電池廠新日光25日舉行台南廠動工典禮，該廠規劃年產能達34億瓦(3.4GWp)，將成為全球最大單一太陽能電池廠，董事長林坤禧表示，該廠加入後，將使新日光快速躍居全球前3大太陽能電池製造商。
新日光25日舉行台南廠動工典禮，此廠為新日光第3座廠，亦是南台灣營運中心，年產能規模達3.4GWp，奪下全球最大單一太陽能電池廠寶座。林坤禧指出，太陽光發電與傳統發電成本相當(Grid-Parity)目標，在2010年可說只有一步之遙，為配合2010年後需求成長，新日光預計在未來3~4年內逐步完成新產能裝置，屆時總產能將達4.2GWp，成為全球最大或至少是前3大太陽能電池製造廠。
林坤禧指出，持續呈現缺貨的太陽能矽晶圓及太陽能電池，在市場幾番上調報價後，目前已達到高點，再向上調高機率已不大，但由於下半年需求仍暢旺，報價雖難上調、亦難下砍。至於近期多晶矽料源缺乏、價格蠢動，他表示，多晶矽料源價格確實是穩住，不像上半年小幅下滑，但亦沒有充裕的上漲動力，目前新日光購買現貨多晶矽料源平均價格約每公斤50~55美元。
新日光合約料源約佔總料源需求25~30%，至於其它料源雖無簽約，但因長期合作關係良好，價格波動不大，現貨市場亦沒有缺料現象。新日光2010年上半每股盈餘超過新台幣6元，被喻為以黑馬之姿快速衝前，本業表現可圈可點，由於新產能陸續開出，加上有相當把握維持報價穩定，預估2010年下半獲利將比上半年佳。
面對2010年台灣太陽能電池廠全面擴充產能，是否會有供過於求危機，林坤禧認為，沒有任何產業不會有供過於求危機，但對業者來說，最該擔心的是，是否有競爭力能夠面對環境挑戰，新日光是充滿絕對的自信，而對於大手筆投入的新進者，由於投入門檻相對高，必須面臨成本競爭壓力，快速累積量產學習曲線，要有更好的技術基礎才能凸顯優勢。
新日光25日舉行台南廠動工典禮，此廠為新日光第3座廠，亦是南台灣營運中心，年產能規模達3.4GWp，奪下全球最大單一太陽能電池廠寶座。林坤禧指出，太陽光發電與傳統發電成本相當(Grid-Parity)目標，在2010年可說只有一步之遙，為配合2010年後需求成長，新日光預計在未來3~4年內逐步完成新產能裝置，屆時總產能將達4.2GWp，成為全球最大或至少是前3大太陽能電池製造廠。
林坤禧指出，持續呈現缺貨的太陽能矽晶圓及太陽能電池，在市場幾番上調報價後，目前已達到高點，再向上調高機率已不大，但由於下半年需求仍暢旺，報價雖難上調、亦難下砍。至於近期多晶矽料源缺乏、價格蠢動，他表示，多晶矽料源價格確實是穩住，不像上半年小幅下滑，但亦沒有充裕的上漲動力，目前新日光購買現貨多晶矽料源平均價格約每公斤50~55美元。
新日光合約料源約佔總料源需求25~30%，至於其它料源雖無簽約，但因長期合作關係良好，價格波動不大，現貨市場亦沒有缺料現象。新日光2010年上半每股盈餘超過新台幣6元，被喻為以黑馬之姿快速衝前，本業表現可圈可點，由於新產能陸續開出，加上有相當把握維持報價穩定，預估2010年下半獲利將比上半年佳。
面對2010年台灣太陽能電池廠全面擴充產能，是否會有供過於求危機，林坤禧認為，沒有任何產業不會有供過於求危機，但對業者來說，最該擔心的是，是否有競爭力能夠面對環境挑戰，新日光是充滿絕對的自信，而對於大手筆投入的新進者，由於投入門檻相對高，必須面臨成本競爭壓力，快速累積量產學習曲線，要有更好的技術基礎才能凸顯優勢。
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Cashing In on Tech
A decade on from the Internet bust, should young investment bankers once again be fighting to get on the technology beat?
With the sector's top eight companies sitting on $125 billion of net cash, deals look set to continue.
And investors won't necessarily be burned.
Intel's shares may have dropped after the company agreed to pay a huge price for McAfee, but, in general, markets have been surprisingly supportive of acquisitive firms as growth has slowed.
.Oracle has spent $28 billion on seven companies since 2005, according to Dealogic data on deals over $500 million whose terms were disclosed. Its stock is up 67% over that period. Hewlett-Packard has bought six companies for $25 billion and seen its stock rise 82% since 2005. The Nasdaq Composite index is down 1.3% in that time.
Microsoft, in contrast, has spent $9 billion on five companies, a far smaller sum relative to its much larger market capitalization. Its shares are off 10% since 2005.
There are other ways to get cash off the balance sheet. In their most recent quarters, the top eight bought back $13 billion of stock. Some even pay decent dividends.
Still, with the sector generating tens of billions of dollars from operations each year, bank accounts should keep expanding despite buybacks and dividends. So more big deals are likely in the offing.
The surest path to riches, of course, isn't acquisitions but innovation. The two least acquisitive, Google and Apple, have seen share gains of 150% and 680%, respectively, since 2005. In their cases, starting dividends or share buybacks make sense. Each has about 20% of its market capitalization in cash, yielding next to nothing. Saving, in their case, is no longer a virtue.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703447004575449772842325594.html?mod=ITP_moneyandinvesting_13
Home Builder Shares Rise
This is ridiculous....
July's sales drop follows the expiration of a government tax credit program that offered certain buyers up to $8,000 to sign a contract by April 30. Deals originally needed to close by June 30, but lawmakers pushed that deadline to Sept. 30.
Michael Widner, of Stifel Nicolaus & Co., noted that immediately following the expiration of the credit, new-home sales fell sharply in May and then rebounded strongly in June. Investors expect that there could be a sizable jump in August if the pattern repeats, he said, or a bounce because the number came in so low.
Mr. Widner doesn't generally advocate trading on monthly home-sales figures because they are volatile numbers and subject to large revisions. But, he said, for better or worse, this seems to be a market where everyone is trading ahead of the next data point.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704125604575449682462176758.html?mod=ITP_moneyandinvesting_4
July's sales drop follows the expiration of a government tax credit program that offered certain buyers up to $8,000 to sign a contract by April 30. Deals originally needed to close by June 30, but lawmakers pushed that deadline to Sept. 30.
Michael Widner, of Stifel Nicolaus & Co., noted that immediately following the expiration of the credit, new-home sales fell sharply in May and then rebounded strongly in June. Investors expect that there could be a sizable jump in August if the pattern repeats, he said, or a bounce because the number came in so low.
Mr. Widner doesn't generally advocate trading on monthly home-sales figures because they are volatile numbers and subject to large revisions. But, he said, for better or worse, this seems to be a market where everyone is trading ahead of the next data point.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704125604575449682462176758.html?mod=ITP_moneyandinvesting_4
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