Airline ticket prices often seem like a brain-teaser with little logic. From Chicago, a flight to Miami is more than twice as far as a flight to Memphis, but the shorter Memphis flight costs 25% more on average. Fly to Washington, D.C., from Hartford, Conn., and the average fare is nearly three times as high as if you flew to nearby Baltimore from Hartford, according to government data for the first quarter of this year.
The fares travelers pay typically have little relation to how far you fly, even though airline costs are largely dependent on the length of a flight. Long trips often cost less than short trips. Flights of the same time and distance can have radically different prices.
David Dugan's defense company paid US Airways $1,358 for a non-refundable coach, round-trip ticket this week to Hartford from Washington. And yet Mr. Dugan had just bought $900 round-trip tickets for a family trip from Washington to Spain.
"It's crazy," he said. "We're going to Europe and it's cheaper than going to Hartford."
Airline pricing is enormously complex, often confounding and angering travelers with prices that change several times a day, carry an almanac full of rules, restrictions and penalties and have huge disparities in the price of a trip in different markets or even just different days.
The price you pay for a ticket is driven by a number of variables: competition, types of passengers, the route and operating costs. But the biggest factor, by far, is whether discount airlines fly in a market. Low-cost carriers often set the price in markets because competitors feel compelled to match that price or risk losing customers and flying empty seats. And when they aren't there, big airlines behave radically differently when setting prices.
"It's the number of competitors and the quality of the competition," said airfare analyst and consultant Bob Harrell.
The kinds of travelers in a market heavily influence what prices airlines charge as well. If the route has lots of business travelers—like Hartford to Washington—then airlines set prices high knowing customers will be less sensitive to higher prices. If the route is populated by price-sensitive travelers —think Florida cities and Las Vegas—then airlines set prices low in order to fill up planes.
"Airlines are just saying, 'What is the most I can get for that seat?' " said Bradley Seitz, president of Topaz International Ltd., which tracks and audits airfares for major corporations.
On the Hartford-Washington route, what they can get is a lot: The average price in the first quarter was $648 round-trip, or 99 cents per mile, according to the Department of Transportation, making that route one of the most expensive in the country per-mile. Meanwhile, Southwest Airlines charges far lower prices between Hartford and Baltimore, about 40 miles north of Washington, so the average ticket price was $236, or 42 cents per mile.
When Andrew Kowal made a trip to Washington from Hartford for meetings at the Capitol, his corporate travel department asked if he would fly to Baltimore instead. It made little sense to him to rent a car or buy a round-trip Amtrak ticket to get to Washington instead of simply flying where you want to go.
"Think about the resources used if I went to Baltimore," he said. "How could that be cheaper?"
Business travelers pay more than twice as much per mile, on average, to fly from New York to London as they do from New York to Los Angeles, according to Topaz. In the second quarter, the average round-trip from New York's Kennedy Airport to Los Angeles International Airport was $1,088, while the average ticket from JFK to London's Heathrow Airport was $3,610, Topaz found in checking ticket purchases for companies. ( I doubt it)
Not only are business routes more expensive, but the London-bound travelers are more likely to buy business-class seats than the L.A. fliers. It's more expensive, too, for airlines to operate internationally, and international ticket taxes are higher.
But the reality is that big airlines that fly to both Los Angeles and London from New York face low-fare airline competition on the domestic route, but not the international route, and so they charge far more. Bigger competitors often match prices of discount carriers like Virgin America, which had 20% of all passengers flying between JFK and LAX in the first quarter, according to consulting firm Oliver Wyman Group's PlaneStats database.
And when there's not low-fare competition, prices soar. The most-expensive average domestic ticket in the first quarter was $786 for round-trip flights between San Francisco and Philadelphia, according to the DOT. That 2,521-mile route is dominated by United and US Airways, who are competitors but also partners in the Star Alliance. Fly to Boston from San Francisco—183 miles farther by air than Philadelphia—and you paid an average $296 less round-trip in the first quarter, according to DOT. The difference: JetBlue Airways has 17% of the San Francisco-Boston market, but none of the San Francisco-Philadelphia market.
High fixed costs do make short routes more expensive, per mile. But airport costs like terminal rents and landing fees and even the expense of buying or leasing jets, pale in comparison to the two biggest expenses at airlines: labor and fuel. Both go higher as flights get longer.
When the airline industry was regulated, the government set prices sensitive to distance, and buying tickets—far more expensive in the regulated days because airlines were guaranteed profits—was a bit like going to the gas pump.
Now, airfares are more like Coca-Cola, says Rob Britton, a former American Airlines executive who now lectures at business schools. "How much does Coke cost? The reality is it depends on where you are. You pay a lot more at the cineplex than you do at the grocery store," he said. "Charge what the market will bear."
That means distance has little to do with pricing. Cincinnati to New York happens to be exactly the same distance by air as Long Beach, Calif., to Salt Lake City, and both routes include a hub for Delta Air Lines at one end. The similarities end there. For Cincinnati-New York, a market rich with business travelers where Delta carries 98% of all passengers, travelers paid an average 42 cents a mile in the first quarter, according to the DOT. For the Long-Beach-Salt Lake route, Delta competes with jetBlue Airways and charged only half as much.
Delta says prices on each route are based on "market dynamics," including distance, operating costs and competition. US Airways declined to comment on its pricing strategy "for competitive reasons.''
High prices do catch the attention of low-priced competitors. In the first quarter this year, the most expensive market in the country, per mile, was Boston to Philadelphia, a US Airways-dominated route, where the average fare was a whopping $684. Southwest began serving that route in June.
And now? US Airways' highest coach fare is $281 round-trip—$400 less than its first-quarter average fare.
Thursday, August 26, 2010
全球最大太陽能電池廠動工 新日光將快速躍居前3大
太陽能電池廠新日光25日舉行台南廠動工典禮，該廠規劃年產能達34億瓦(3.4GWp)，將成為全球最大單一太陽能電池廠，董事長林坤禧表示，該廠加入後，將使新日光快速躍居全球前3大太陽能電池製造商。
新日光25日舉行台南廠動工典禮，此廠為新日光第3座廠，亦是南台灣營運中心，年產能規模達3.4GWp，奪下全球最大單一太陽能電池廠寶座。林坤禧指出，太陽光發電與傳統發電成本相當(Grid-Parity)目標，在2010年可說只有一步之遙，為配合2010年後需求成長，新日光預計在未來3~4年內逐步完成新產能裝置，屆時總產能將達4.2GWp，成為全球最大或至少是前3大太陽能電池製造廠。
林坤禧指出，持續呈現缺貨的太陽能矽晶圓及太陽能電池，在市場幾番上調報價後，目前已達到高點，再向上調高機率已不大，但由於下半年需求仍暢旺，報價雖難上調、亦難下砍。至於近期多晶矽料源缺乏、價格蠢動，他表示，多晶矽料源價格確實是穩住，不像上半年小幅下滑，但亦沒有充裕的上漲動力，目前新日光購買現貨多晶矽料源平均價格約每公斤50~55美元。
新日光合約料源約佔總料源需求25~30%，至於其它料源雖無簽約，但因長期合作關係良好，價格波動不大，現貨市場亦沒有缺料現象。新日光2010年上半每股盈餘超過新台幣6元，被喻為以黑馬之姿快速衝前，本業表現可圈可點，由於新產能陸續開出，加上有相當把握維持報價穩定，預估2010年下半獲利將比上半年佳。
面對2010年台灣太陽能電池廠全面擴充產能，是否會有供過於求危機，林坤禧認為，沒有任何產業不會有供過於求危機，但對業者來說，最該擔心的是，是否有競爭力能夠面對環境挑戰，新日光是充滿絕對的自信，而對於大手筆投入的新進者，由於投入門檻相對高，必須面臨成本競爭壓力，快速累積量產學習曲線，要有更好的技術基礎才能凸顯優勢。
新日光25日舉行台南廠動工典禮，此廠為新日光第3座廠，亦是南台灣營運中心，年產能規模達3.4GWp，奪下全球最大單一太陽能電池廠寶座。林坤禧指出，太陽光發電與傳統發電成本相當(Grid-Parity)目標，在2010年可說只有一步之遙，為配合2010年後需求成長，新日光預計在未來3~4年內逐步完成新產能裝置，屆時總產能將達4.2GWp，成為全球最大或至少是前3大太陽能電池製造廠。
林坤禧指出，持續呈現缺貨的太陽能矽晶圓及太陽能電池，在市場幾番上調報價後，目前已達到高點，再向上調高機率已不大，但由於下半年需求仍暢旺，報價雖難上調、亦難下砍。至於近期多晶矽料源缺乏、價格蠢動，他表示，多晶矽料源價格確實是穩住，不像上半年小幅下滑，但亦沒有充裕的上漲動力，目前新日光購買現貨多晶矽料源平均價格約每公斤50~55美元。
新日光合約料源約佔總料源需求25~30%，至於其它料源雖無簽約，但因長期合作關係良好，價格波動不大，現貨市場亦沒有缺料現象。新日光2010年上半每股盈餘超過新台幣6元，被喻為以黑馬之姿快速衝前，本業表現可圈可點，由於新產能陸續開出，加上有相當把握維持報價穩定，預估2010年下半獲利將比上半年佳。
面對2010年台灣太陽能電池廠全面擴充產能，是否會有供過於求危機，林坤禧認為，沒有任何產業不會有供過於求危機，但對業者來說，最該擔心的是，是否有競爭力能夠面對環境挑戰，新日光是充滿絕對的自信，而對於大手筆投入的新進者，由於投入門檻相對高，必須面臨成本競爭壓力，快速累積量產學習曲線，要有更好的技術基礎才能凸顯優勢。
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Cashing In on Tech
A decade on from the Internet bust, should young investment bankers once again be fighting to get on the technology beat?
With the sector's top eight companies sitting on $125 billion of net cash, deals look set to continue.
And investors won't necessarily be burned.
Intel's shares may have dropped after the company agreed to pay a huge price for McAfee, but, in general, markets have been surprisingly supportive of acquisitive firms as growth has slowed.
.Oracle has spent $28 billion on seven companies since 2005, according to Dealogic data on deals over $500 million whose terms were disclosed. Its stock is up 67% over that period. Hewlett-Packard has bought six companies for $25 billion and seen its stock rise 82% since 2005. The Nasdaq Composite index is down 1.3% in that time.
Microsoft, in contrast, has spent $9 billion on five companies, a far smaller sum relative to its much larger market capitalization. Its shares are off 10% since 2005.
There are other ways to get cash off the balance sheet. In their most recent quarters, the top eight bought back $13 billion of stock. Some even pay decent dividends.
Still, with the sector generating tens of billions of dollars from operations each year, bank accounts should keep expanding despite buybacks and dividends. So more big deals are likely in the offing.
The surest path to riches, of course, isn't acquisitions but innovation. The two least acquisitive, Google and Apple, have seen share gains of 150% and 680%, respectively, since 2005. In their cases, starting dividends or share buybacks make sense. Each has about 20% of its market capitalization in cash, yielding next to nothing. Saving, in their case, is no longer a virtue.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703447004575449772842325594.html?mod=ITP_moneyandinvesting_13
Home Builder Shares Rise
This is ridiculous....
July's sales drop follows the expiration of a government tax credit program that offered certain buyers up to $8,000 to sign a contract by April 30. Deals originally needed to close by June 30, but lawmakers pushed that deadline to Sept. 30.
Michael Widner, of Stifel Nicolaus & Co., noted that immediately following the expiration of the credit, new-home sales fell sharply in May and then rebounded strongly in June. Investors expect that there could be a sizable jump in August if the pattern repeats, he said, or a bounce because the number came in so low.
Mr. Widner doesn't generally advocate trading on monthly home-sales figures because they are volatile numbers and subject to large revisions. But, he said, for better or worse, this seems to be a market where everyone is trading ahead of the next data point.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704125604575449682462176758.html?mod=ITP_moneyandinvesting_4
July's sales drop follows the expiration of a government tax credit program that offered certain buyers up to $8,000 to sign a contract by April 30. Deals originally needed to close by June 30, but lawmakers pushed that deadline to Sept. 30.
Michael Widner, of Stifel Nicolaus & Co., noted that immediately following the expiration of the credit, new-home sales fell sharply in May and then rebounded strongly in June. Investors expect that there could be a sizable jump in August if the pattern repeats, he said, or a bounce because the number came in so low.
Mr. Widner doesn't generally advocate trading on monthly home-sales figures because they are volatile numbers and subject to large revisions. But, he said, for better or worse, this seems to be a market where everyone is trading ahead of the next data point.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704125604575449682462176758.html?mod=ITP_moneyandinvesting_4
Dell Jumps Into Smartphones
Dell Inc. put its first U.S. smartphone on sale on Tuesday, making the computer maker the latest technology manufacturer to enter the competitive mobile handset market.
The Round Rock, Texas, company said its 3.5-inch touchscreen phone, dubbed the "Aero," runs on Google Inc.'s Android operating system and is available for $99.99 with a new two-year contract from AT&T Inc. and $299.99 without. It can be ordered via Dell's website.
The move comes as the manufacturers jockey for position in the increasingly competitive smartphone market ahead of the critical holiday shopping season.
Energized by the release of Apple Inc.'s iPhone in 2007, sales of smartphones have become increasingly popular and a driver of sales for many hardware makers. Global smartphone sales are expected to double to 506 million units within four years, industry tracker iSuppli said earlier this summer.
The Aero is not Dell's first smartphone. Late last year, the company began selling a smartphone, called the "Mini 3i," in China, sparking speculation the company would sell similar products in other countries. Dell has not released details as to how well the Mini 3i has sold in China.
Dell said the Aero would support a version of Adobe Systems Inc.'s Flash, a key software program that powers most Internet video and advertising. Flash has become a hot-button issue among technology companies since Apple publicly announced it would not support the software in its iPhone and iPad tablet computer devices.
The Aero's release follows initial U.S. sales of the company's tablet computer, the "Streak," which also doubles as a cellphone. Like the Aero, the company's tablet uses Android software.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703447004575449574198576034.html?mod=ITP_marketplace_2
The Round Rock, Texas, company said its 3.5-inch touchscreen phone, dubbed the "Aero," runs on Google Inc.'s Android operating system and is available for $99.99 with a new two-year contract from AT&T Inc. and $299.99 without. It can be ordered via Dell's website.
The move comes as the manufacturers jockey for position in the increasingly competitive smartphone market ahead of the critical holiday shopping season.
Energized by the release of Apple Inc.'s iPhone in 2007, sales of smartphones have become increasingly popular and a driver of sales for many hardware makers. Global smartphone sales are expected to double to 506 million units within four years, industry tracker iSuppli said earlier this summer.
The Aero is not Dell's first smartphone. Late last year, the company began selling a smartphone, called the "Mini 3i," in China, sparking speculation the company would sell similar products in other countries. Dell has not released details as to how well the Mini 3i has sold in China.
Dell said the Aero would support a version of Adobe Systems Inc.'s Flash, a key software program that powers most Internet video and advertising. Flash has become a hot-button issue among technology companies since Apple publicly announced it would not support the software in its iPhone and iPad tablet computer devices.
The Aero's release follows initial U.S. sales of the company's tablet computer, the "Streak," which also doubles as a cellphone. Like the Aero, the company's tablet uses Android software.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703447004575449574198576034.html?mod=ITP_marketplace_2
China and South Africa Sign Business Deals
Among deals announced Tuesday, China Metallurgical Group Corp. said it will construct an iron-titanium mine in South Africa. The mine will have annual production of 1.2 million tons of pig iron and 680,000 tons of titanium dioxide, Xu Yongjie, a vice president of MCC International Inc., a China Metallurgical unit, said on the sidelines of the China-South Africa Business Forum.
China Metallurgical's framework agreement, signed with Kermas Mining Fund LP, sets the Chinese company as the main contractor for building the mine, which is located in northeastern South Africa, as well as for infrastructure for the mine, Mr. Xu said. Other details have yet to be finalized, he said.
Separately, an official at China National Nuclear Corp. said it is in talks to build a nuclear-power plant in South Africa. A deal on that would mark the latest sign that China is gearing up to export nuclear technology at the same time as it rapidly expands its domestic reactor fleet. The talks involve the potential transfer of nuclear technology to South Africa, although nothing concrete was expected to be signed during President Zuma's visit, the official said.
China is working to become self-sufficient in advanced nuclear technology so that it doesn't need to award multibillion-dollar contracts to foreign companies to build domestic plants in the future. It is also looking at selling nuclear technology overseas in countries such as Vietnam, Belarus and Argentina.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703447004575448911926722310.html?mod=ITP_pageone_2
China Metallurgical's framework agreement, signed with Kermas Mining Fund LP, sets the Chinese company as the main contractor for building the mine, which is located in northeastern South Africa, as well as for infrastructure for the mine, Mr. Xu said. Other details have yet to be finalized, he said.
Separately, an official at China National Nuclear Corp. said it is in talks to build a nuclear-power plant in South Africa. A deal on that would mark the latest sign that China is gearing up to export nuclear technology at the same time as it rapidly expands its domestic reactor fleet. The talks involve the potential transfer of nuclear technology to South Africa, although nothing concrete was expected to be signed during President Zuma's visit, the official said.
China is working to become self-sufficient in advanced nuclear technology so that it doesn't need to award multibillion-dollar contracts to foreign companies to build domestic plants in the future. It is also looking at selling nuclear technology overseas in countries such as Vietnam, Belarus and Argentina.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703447004575448911926722310.html?mod=ITP_pageone_2
China Traffic Jam Could Last Weeks
Source: WSJ
BEIJING—A 60-mile traffic jam near the Chinese capital could last until mid-September, officials say.
Traffic has been snarled along the outskirts of Beijing and is stretching toward the border of Inner Mongolia ever since roadwork on the Beijing-Tibet Highway started Aug. 13. The following week, parts of a major road circling Beijing were closed, further tightening overburdened roadways.
As the jam on the highway, also known as National Highway 110, passed the 10-day mark Tuesday, local authorities dispatched hundreds of police to keep order and to reroute cars and trucks carrying essential supplies, such as food or flammables, around the main bottleneck. There, vehicles were inching along little more than a third of a mile a day. Zhang Minghai, director of Zhangjiakou city's Traffic Management Bureau general office, said in a telephone interview he didn't expect the situation to return to normal until around Sept. 17 when road construction is scheduled to be finished and traffic lanes will open up.
Villagers along Highway 110 took advantage of the jam, selling drivers packets of instant noodles from roadside stands and, when traffic was at a standstill, moving between trucks and cars to hawk their wares.
Truck drivers, when they weren't complaining about the vendors overcharging for the food, kept busy playing card games. Their trucks, for the most part, are basic, blue-colored vehicles with no features added to help pamper drivers through long hauls.
Truck driver Long Jie said his usual trip from the coal boomtown of Baotou in Inner Mongolia to Beijing, which normally takes three days, was now taking him a week or more. The delay, he said, meant he would have to raise his rates above the usual 12,000 yuan, about $1,765, for a 30-ton truck full of cargo.
.Sounding frazzled and tired, Mr. Long, a driver for Baotou Zengcai Shipping Co., said in a telephone interview that the traffic got a little better once he finally made it off the highway.
Though triggered by construction, the root cause for the congestion is chronic overcrowding on key national arteries. Automobile sales in China whizzed past the U.S. for the first time last year, as Chinese bought 13.6 million vehicles, compared with 9.4 million vehicles in 2008. China is racing to build new roads to ease the congestion, but that very construction is making traffic problems worse—at least temporarily.
China's roads suffer from extra wear and tear from illegally overloaded trucks, especially along key coal routes. Coal supplies move from Mongolia through the outskirts of the capital on their way to factories. There are few rail lines to handle the extra load. Though the current massive gridlock is unusual, thousands of trucks line up along the main thoroughfares into Beijing even on the best days.
Beijing is particularly prone to traffic jams because it is a bottleneck point. Drivers from the northwest have to navigate its rings of concentric circular highways to get to coastal ports or to head south. The sixth-ring road is the biggest, and until a new beltway is finished in the next few years, there is no alternative route around the capital.
Also entering the mix is the swell of passenger cars into the city from residents who have had to move farther from the capital to find affordable homes.
Other cities around the world face similar congestion headaches. The worst are in developing countries where the sudden rise of a car-buying middle class outpaces highway construction—unlike in the U.S., which had decades to develop transportation infrastructure to keep up with auto buyers.
A recent study by IBM suggested some of the worst commutes are in Moscow, where drivers reported 2½-hour delays, on average, when asked about the worst traffic jam they faced in three years. Still, Beijing beat out Mexico City, Johannesburg, Moscow and New Delhi to take top spot in the International Business Machines Corp. survey of "commuter pain," which is based on a measure of the economic and emotional toll of commuting.
The mega-jam on the city outskirts comes as officials warn that downtown traffic in Beijing is steadily worsening. State media on Tuesday reported that average driving speeds in the capital could drop below nine miles an hour if residents keep buying at current rates of 2,000 new cars a day.
At that pace, Beijing will have seven million vehicles by 2015, according to the head of the Beijing Transportation Research Center, and transportation will slow to what it was decades ago when China was known as the Bicycle Kingdom.
Beijing's roads now have capacity to handle 6.7 million vehicles—and that is assuming current restrictions stay in place, such as the one requiring private cars to keep off the road for one day a week. Still, Beijing has half the number of cars of a comparably sized city, such as Tokyo.
The capital greatly expanded its bus lines and subway in preparation for the 2008 Summer Olympics, and work continues to open even more stations. But public transport remains crowded and many who can afford it prefer to drive cars.
Longer term, city planners are pinning their hopes on expanded mass transit, adding subway, light rail and mode dedicated bus lanes.
BEIJING—A 60-mile traffic jam near the Chinese capital could last until mid-September, officials say.
Traffic has been snarled along the outskirts of Beijing and is stretching toward the border of Inner Mongolia ever since roadwork on the Beijing-Tibet Highway started Aug. 13. The following week, parts of a major road circling Beijing were closed, further tightening overburdened roadways.
As the jam on the highway, also known as National Highway 110, passed the 10-day mark Tuesday, local authorities dispatched hundreds of police to keep order and to reroute cars and trucks carrying essential supplies, such as food or flammables, around the main bottleneck. There, vehicles were inching along little more than a third of a mile a day. Zhang Minghai, director of Zhangjiakou city's Traffic Management Bureau general office, said in a telephone interview he didn't expect the situation to return to normal until around Sept. 17 when road construction is scheduled to be finished and traffic lanes will open up.
Villagers along Highway 110 took advantage of the jam, selling drivers packets of instant noodles from roadside stands and, when traffic was at a standstill, moving between trucks and cars to hawk their wares.
Truck drivers, when they weren't complaining about the vendors overcharging for the food, kept busy playing card games. Their trucks, for the most part, are basic, blue-colored vehicles with no features added to help pamper drivers through long hauls.
Truck driver Long Jie said his usual trip from the coal boomtown of Baotou in Inner Mongolia to Beijing, which normally takes three days, was now taking him a week or more. The delay, he said, meant he would have to raise his rates above the usual 12,000 yuan, about $1,765, for a 30-ton truck full of cargo.
.Sounding frazzled and tired, Mr. Long, a driver for Baotou Zengcai Shipping Co., said in a telephone interview that the traffic got a little better once he finally made it off the highway.
Though triggered by construction, the root cause for the congestion is chronic overcrowding on key national arteries. Automobile sales in China whizzed past the U.S. for the first time last year, as Chinese bought 13.6 million vehicles, compared with 9.4 million vehicles in 2008. China is racing to build new roads to ease the congestion, but that very construction is making traffic problems worse—at least temporarily.
China's roads suffer from extra wear and tear from illegally overloaded trucks, especially along key coal routes. Coal supplies move from Mongolia through the outskirts of the capital on their way to factories. There are few rail lines to handle the extra load. Though the current massive gridlock is unusual, thousands of trucks line up along the main thoroughfares into Beijing even on the best days.
Beijing is particularly prone to traffic jams because it is a bottleneck point. Drivers from the northwest have to navigate its rings of concentric circular highways to get to coastal ports or to head south. The sixth-ring road is the biggest, and until a new beltway is finished in the next few years, there is no alternative route around the capital.
Also entering the mix is the swell of passenger cars into the city from residents who have had to move farther from the capital to find affordable homes.
Other cities around the world face similar congestion headaches. The worst are in developing countries where the sudden rise of a car-buying middle class outpaces highway construction—unlike in the U.S., which had decades to develop transportation infrastructure to keep up with auto buyers.
A recent study by IBM suggested some of the worst commutes are in Moscow, where drivers reported 2½-hour delays, on average, when asked about the worst traffic jam they faced in three years. Still, Beijing beat out Mexico City, Johannesburg, Moscow and New Delhi to take top spot in the International Business Machines Corp. survey of "commuter pain," which is based on a measure of the economic and emotional toll of commuting.
The mega-jam on the city outskirts comes as officials warn that downtown traffic in Beijing is steadily worsening. State media on Tuesday reported that average driving speeds in the capital could drop below nine miles an hour if residents keep buying at current rates of 2,000 new cars a day.
At that pace, Beijing will have seven million vehicles by 2015, according to the head of the Beijing Transportation Research Center, and transportation will slow to what it was decades ago when China was known as the Bicycle Kingdom.
Beijing's roads now have capacity to handle 6.7 million vehicles—and that is assuming current restrictions stay in place, such as the one requiring private cars to keep off the road for one day a week. Still, Beijing has half the number of cars of a comparably sized city, such as Tokyo.
The capital greatly expanded its bus lines and subway in preparation for the 2008 Summer Olympics, and work continues to open even more stations. But public transport remains crowded and many who can afford it prefer to drive cars.
Longer term, city planners are pinning their hopes on expanded mass transit, adding subway, light rail and mode dedicated bus lanes.
Plunge in Home Sales Stokes Economy Fears
U.S. home sales plummeted in July to a level not seen in more than a decade, spurring fears of renewed weakness in housing prices and the broader economy.
Sales of previously owned homes fell 27.2% from June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.83 million, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday, the lowest level since the industry group started its tally in 1999.
Weak Foundations
Sales of previously owned homes fell 27% in July as market signals Tuesday deepened worries over growth
The expiration of a home-buyer tax credit in the spring was expected to damp buying, though less severely. Economists said the sales drop—together with a corresponding rise in the inventory of unsold homes—meant another decline in housing prices was on the horizon. House prices had stabilized last year after declining since 2006.
High unemployment and meager wage growth already are driving many Americans' reluctance to make major purchases, so a return of falling home equity could further depress confidence and consumer spending.
"At this point in the recovery, every little bit counts," said economist Paul Dales of Capital Economics. "A double dip in the housing market and house prices would not be enough to generate another recession. It would certainly help to hold back the recovery." He expects home prices to fall another 5% after a 30% decline during the recession.
Housing-Market Recession Isn't Over.
The data sent stocks tumbling, briefly pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average below 10,000 for the first time since early July. The index closed at 10040.45, down 133.96 points, with investors rushing into safer assets as they reassessed the economic outlook. A rally in Treasurys pushed the yield on the 10-year note as low as 2.47%, its lowest mark since early 2009. Oil prices and other key commodities such as copper fell on expectations of weaker demand.
Nick Timiraos and Steve Kerch discuss the latest housing data showing sales of existing homes plunged in July and what it means for housing market, including prices, going forward.
The renewed worry about housing comes as economists downgrade their forecasts for the economy this year and early next year. Traditionally, the housing sector, along with purchases of durable goods such as furniture, would help pull the economy out of a recession as lower interest rates spurred higher demand. But this time, potential home buyers either don't have the jobs or savings to jump in or are wary of another decline in the market.
"Consumers and housing are in no position to lead us out," said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight. "We've gone through the inventory-cycle boost. The stimulus boost is fading. We're falling back on whatever underlying strength there is in the private sector, in exports and business-equipment spending, and there's not a lot."
A sharp drop in mortgage rates in recent months appears to be doing little to stimulate demand. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has fallen to less than 4.5%, reaching 50-year lows, but demand for new loans is weak. Many borrowers face challenges qualifying for loans because they have lost their jobs or aren't making as much money. Some are simply growing more cautious.
"I'm in no rush," said Steve Hamilton, who sold his Carlsbad, Calif., home two years ago and has been on the sidelines since. He said he was happy to continue renting a home that costs half of what the monthly mortgage payments were just a few years ago. "The tide is still going out," said the 41-year-old commercial-real-estate investor. "When I see a steady increase in local jobs, that's when we'll step back into the market."
Analysts say the big risk to the market is that consumers lose any urgency to buy homes because of new concerns that prices are poised to fall.
While tax credits to spur home sales helped stabilize housing markets across the country over much of the past year, the expiration of that stimulus in April has revealed lingering problems that have restrained housing.
Buyers who signed contracts by April 30 have until the end of next month to close on those sales and receive credits worth as much as $8,000. Sales of homes priced between $100,000 and $250,000, which would have received the biggest benefit from the tax credit, were off 35% in July from a year ago.
The number of unsold homes on the market grew by 2.5% to nearly four million in July. At the current sales pace, it would take 12.5 months to clear that inventory, the highest level in more than a decade.
Sales may have been even worse if mortgage rates hadn't been so low, said David Berson, chief economist at PMI Group Inc., a mortgage insurer in Walnut Creek, Calif. Low mortgage rates won't hurt, he says, but "they will give you less traction in the market than we would normally get."
How long the hangover from the tax credit will last depends on how long the economy takes to recover. Tuesday's housing report was "a wake-up call to anyone who's trying to understand why housing has not been recovering," said Ivy Zelman, president of housing-research firm Zelman & Associates. "The artificial boost from the tax credit masked the impediments."
Nearly one in four homeowners with a mortgage owes more than their home is worth, which means many are unlikely to sell unless their lender approves a short sale, in which the home sells for less than the amount owed.
Price declines could be shaped largely by how banks manage the volumes of more than five million loans that are either seriously delinquent or in foreclosure. If more of those loans are modified, or if the homes sell through short sales, that could spare the housing market from bigger price declines.
Existing-home sales plunged to their lowest level in 15 years in July as inventories soared.
One troubling sign for the market is that banks appear to be listing more homes for sale, just as demand has dropped. The number of bank-owned listings increased 12% in August from the previous month. The figures, tracked by Zelman & Associates, include listings for the top 10 U.S. banks in 20 states and from mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Price declines could lead to more delinquencies and foreclosures, and additional subsequent price drops. "You end up in a home-price-depreciation death spiral," said Laurie Goodman, a senior managing director at mortgage-bond trader Amherst Securities Group LP in New York. "It's not clear there's enough demand to handle this overhang without another round of price declines."
The median sale price increased 0.7% from one year ago to $182,600 in July, but that was down 0.2% from June. Median prices largely show the shift in the mix of homes that are selling, and analysts attributed the annual increase to a declining share of entry-level home sales.
While prices are expected to fall, fewer analysts expect double-digit plunges, in part because prices in many markets have already fallen sharply.
Sue Dempsey is under contract on a short sale for a three-bedroom home in Las Vegas that sold four years ago for more than $300,000. The price today: less than $120,000. While she missed the deadline for the tax credit, she said the price seemed unbeatable. "We got such a great deal on the house. Golly, we didn't need anything else," said the 58-year-old retiree.
Sales of previously owned homes fell 27.2% from June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.83 million, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday, the lowest level since the industry group started its tally in 1999.
Weak Foundations
Sales of previously owned homes fell 27% in July as market signals Tuesday deepened worries over growth
The expiration of a home-buyer tax credit in the spring was expected to damp buying, though less severely. Economists said the sales drop—together with a corresponding rise in the inventory of unsold homes—meant another decline in housing prices was on the horizon. House prices had stabilized last year after declining since 2006.
High unemployment and meager wage growth already are driving many Americans' reluctance to make major purchases, so a return of falling home equity could further depress confidence and consumer spending.
"At this point in the recovery, every little bit counts," said economist Paul Dales of Capital Economics. "A double dip in the housing market and house prices would not be enough to generate another recession. It would certainly help to hold back the recovery." He expects home prices to fall another 5% after a 30% decline during the recession.
Housing-Market Recession Isn't Over.
The data sent stocks tumbling, briefly pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average below 10,000 for the first time since early July. The index closed at 10040.45, down 133.96 points, with investors rushing into safer assets as they reassessed the economic outlook. A rally in Treasurys pushed the yield on the 10-year note as low as 2.47%, its lowest mark since early 2009. Oil prices and other key commodities such as copper fell on expectations of weaker demand.
Nick Timiraos and Steve Kerch discuss the latest housing data showing sales of existing homes plunged in July and what it means for housing market, including prices, going forward.
The renewed worry about housing comes as economists downgrade their forecasts for the economy this year and early next year. Traditionally, the housing sector, along with purchases of durable goods such as furniture, would help pull the economy out of a recession as lower interest rates spurred higher demand. But this time, potential home buyers either don't have the jobs or savings to jump in or are wary of another decline in the market.
"Consumers and housing are in no position to lead us out," said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight. "We've gone through the inventory-cycle boost. The stimulus boost is fading. We're falling back on whatever underlying strength there is in the private sector, in exports and business-equipment spending, and there's not a lot."
A sharp drop in mortgage rates in recent months appears to be doing little to stimulate demand. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has fallen to less than 4.5%, reaching 50-year lows, but demand for new loans is weak. Many borrowers face challenges qualifying for loans because they have lost their jobs or aren't making as much money. Some are simply growing more cautious.
"I'm in no rush," said Steve Hamilton, who sold his Carlsbad, Calif., home two years ago and has been on the sidelines since. He said he was happy to continue renting a home that costs half of what the monthly mortgage payments were just a few years ago. "The tide is still going out," said the 41-year-old commercial-real-estate investor. "When I see a steady increase in local jobs, that's when we'll step back into the market."
Analysts say the big risk to the market is that consumers lose any urgency to buy homes because of new concerns that prices are poised to fall.
While tax credits to spur home sales helped stabilize housing markets across the country over much of the past year, the expiration of that stimulus in April has revealed lingering problems that have restrained housing.
Buyers who signed contracts by April 30 have until the end of next month to close on those sales and receive credits worth as much as $8,000. Sales of homes priced between $100,000 and $250,000, which would have received the biggest benefit from the tax credit, were off 35% in July from a year ago.
The number of unsold homes on the market grew by 2.5% to nearly four million in July. At the current sales pace, it would take 12.5 months to clear that inventory, the highest level in more than a decade.
Sales may have been even worse if mortgage rates hadn't been so low, said David Berson, chief economist at PMI Group Inc., a mortgage insurer in Walnut Creek, Calif. Low mortgage rates won't hurt, he says, but "they will give you less traction in the market than we would normally get."
How long the hangover from the tax credit will last depends on how long the economy takes to recover. Tuesday's housing report was "a wake-up call to anyone who's trying to understand why housing has not been recovering," said Ivy Zelman, president of housing-research firm Zelman & Associates. "The artificial boost from the tax credit masked the impediments."
Nearly one in four homeowners with a mortgage owes more than their home is worth, which means many are unlikely to sell unless their lender approves a short sale, in which the home sells for less than the amount owed.
Price declines could be shaped largely by how banks manage the volumes of more than five million loans that are either seriously delinquent or in foreclosure. If more of those loans are modified, or if the homes sell through short sales, that could spare the housing market from bigger price declines.
Existing-home sales plunged to their lowest level in 15 years in July as inventories soared.
One troubling sign for the market is that banks appear to be listing more homes for sale, just as demand has dropped. The number of bank-owned listings increased 12% in August from the previous month. The figures, tracked by Zelman & Associates, include listings for the top 10 U.S. banks in 20 states and from mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Price declines could lead to more delinquencies and foreclosures, and additional subsequent price drops. "You end up in a home-price-depreciation death spiral," said Laurie Goodman, a senior managing director at mortgage-bond trader Amherst Securities Group LP in New York. "It's not clear there's enough demand to handle this overhang without another round of price declines."
The median sale price increased 0.7% from one year ago to $182,600 in July, but that was down 0.2% from June. Median prices largely show the shift in the mix of homes that are selling, and analysts attributed the annual increase to a declining share of entry-level home sales.
While prices are expected to fall, fewer analysts expect double-digit plunges, in part because prices in many markets have already fallen sharply.
Sue Dempsey is under contract on a short sale for a three-bedroom home in Las Vegas that sold four years ago for more than $300,000. The price today: less than $120,000. While she missed the deadline for the tax credit, she said the price seemed unbeatable. "We got such a great deal on the house. Golly, we didn't need anything else," said the 58-year-old retiree.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
呼和浩特新能源基本情况
到2020年的目标是：多晶硅实现产能3万吨以上；电池片转换率提高到20%以上；构建2个国家级研发机构；引进扶持1-2家产值百亿元、5-10家产值10亿元以上的光伏企业，实现总产值1000亿元以上，到2020年光伏发电装机容量占我市总装机容量的15%以上，占全国光伏发电5%左右。
http://www.northnews.cn/2010/0824/254748.shtml
http://www.northnews.cn/2010/0824/254748.shtml
Monday, August 23, 2010
大陸昱輝與台灣新日光及昇陽科共簽836MWp矽晶圓供貨合約
Source Digitimes
大陸太陽能矽晶圓廠昱輝(ReneSola)宣布與台灣太陽能電池廠新日光(Neo Solar Power Corp.)及昇陽科(Solartech Energy)共簽定836百萬瓦(MWp)太陽能矽晶圓供貨合約，該合約的供應包括單晶及多晶太陽能矽晶圓在內，顯示近期矽晶圓廠積極與上游多晶矽廠簽約，更規劃新的合約與下游電池廠再簽約，產業再度呈現合約環環相扣的關係。
大陸昱輝光電宣布，將與台灣太陽能電池廠新日光簽定長期太陽能矽晶圓供貨合約，總量約達293MWp多晶矽晶圓，將從2010年7月供貨到2013年12月止，約有141MWp的單晶矽晶圓將在2010年10月開始供貨到2013年12月止，總計3年多的合約共供應434MWp的矽晶圓。
2010年第3季因為供不應求的問題，合約交易形式再度復活。
另外，昱輝亦與昇陽科簽定長期矽晶圓供貨合約，從2010年7月到2013年12月，昱輝將供應昇陽科402MWp的多晶矽晶圓。
2010年下半年受到多晶矽現貨市場供貨吃緊及矽晶圓短缺等問題，多晶矽廠與矽晶圓開始簽定長期供貨合約，包括綠能、茂迪等都與南韓OCI簽定長期供貨合約，而矽晶圓廠亦與太陽能電池廠簽定長期供貨合約，除了昱輝外，兩岸矽晶圓廠其實都祭出長期合約供給客戶簽定以確保未來產能的出處。
昱輝在8月初公布第2季財報時指出，2011年計劃將矽晶圓產能自12億瓦的目標升至18億瓦，並將太陽能電池模組產能自375MWp提升至600MWp。
財報中顯示，第2季太陽能產品出貨量創下258.3 MWp的歷史新高，年增率達200.7%、季增率為6.6%；毛利率達30.2%，高於第1季的17.1%、相較2009年同期的5.1%更高出25.1個百分點。
昱輝更將營收預估區間上修至10億~10.5億美元，毛利率介於25~27%之間。第3季太陽能產品出貨量預估將介於280MWp~310 MWp之間，營收介於3億~3.2億美元區間。
大陸太陽能矽晶圓廠昱輝(ReneSola)宣布與台灣太陽能電池廠新日光(Neo Solar Power Corp.)及昇陽科(Solartech Energy)共簽定836百萬瓦(MWp)太陽能矽晶圓供貨合約，該合約的供應包括單晶及多晶太陽能矽晶圓在內，顯示近期矽晶圓廠積極與上游多晶矽廠簽約，更規劃新的合約與下游電池廠再簽約，產業再度呈現合約環環相扣的關係。
大陸昱輝光電宣布，將與台灣太陽能電池廠新日光簽定長期太陽能矽晶圓供貨合約，總量約達293MWp多晶矽晶圓，將從2010年7月供貨到2013年12月止，約有141MWp的單晶矽晶圓將在2010年10月開始供貨到2013年12月止，總計3年多的合約共供應434MWp的矽晶圓。
2010年第3季因為供不應求的問題，合約交易形式再度復活。
另外，昱輝亦與昇陽科簽定長期矽晶圓供貨合約，從2010年7月到2013年12月，昱輝將供應昇陽科402MWp的多晶矽晶圓。
2010年下半年受到多晶矽現貨市場供貨吃緊及矽晶圓短缺等問題，多晶矽廠與矽晶圓開始簽定長期供貨合約，包括綠能、茂迪等都與南韓OCI簽定長期供貨合約，而矽晶圓廠亦與太陽能電池廠簽定長期供貨合約，除了昱輝外，兩岸矽晶圓廠其實都祭出長期合約供給客戶簽定以確保未來產能的出處。
昱輝在8月初公布第2季財報時指出，2011年計劃將矽晶圓產能自12億瓦的目標升至18億瓦，並將太陽能電池模組產能自375MWp提升至600MWp。
財報中顯示，第2季太陽能產品出貨量創下258.3 MWp的歷史新高，年增率達200.7%、季增率為6.6%；毛利率達30.2%，高於第1季的17.1%、相較2009年同期的5.1%更高出25.1個百分點。
昱輝更將營收預估區間上修至10億~10.5億美元，毛利率介於25~27%之間。第3季太陽能產品出貨量預估將介於280MWp~310 MWp之間，營收介於3億~3.2億美元區間。
国家第二轮光伏电站招标各项目报价评述
国家280兆瓦大型光伏电站特许权项目在京开标价格如下，由于项目的建设周期未2年，所以本次报价一定程度上代表了这些企业对国内光伏发电市场未来2年的光伏发电市场的价格预期，由于国有电力企业的价格明显低于国内光伏企业的报价，也预示着国有电力企业与光伏企业对未来光伏市场走势的两种不同的预测，明年的第三轮招标将在容量上继续放大，明年的招标可反映更为实际和真实的发电成本。按照投资8%内部收益率计算，2012年国内晶体硅技术路线的发电成本在西部为0.8-0.9元/kwh之间
一、陕西榆林靖边20兆瓦光伏并网发电特许权项目 11家投标人
1、中广核太阳能开发有限公司 1.13元/kwh含税
2、中节能太阳能科技有限公司 1.231元
3、国电科技环保集团有限公司 1.0315
4、陕西光伏产业有限公司 1.1182元
5、华电陕西能源有限公司 1.4元/kwh
6、深圳市拓日新能源科技股份有限公司 技术不合格
7、黄河上游水电开发有限责任公司 1.0765元
8、国华能源投资有限公司 0.8687元 最低价
9、中国大唐集团新能源股份有限公司 1.2999元
10、中环光伏系统有限公司联合体 1.14 元
11华能新能源产业控股有限公司 1.0839元
二、青海共和30兆瓦光伏并网发电特许权项目 11家投标人
1、国电电力发展股份有限公司 0.9153元
2、中节能太阳能科技有限公司 0.9638元
3、中广核太阳能开发有限公司 0.8595元
4、深圳市拓日新能源科技股份有限公司 技术标未通过
5、浙江正泰太阳能科技有限公司 1.21元
6、黄河上游水电开发有限责任公司 0.7288元 本轮最低价
7、中国华电集团新能源发展有限公司 1.1468元
8、中国大唐集团新能源股份有限公司 1.0998元
9、国投华靖电力控股有限公司 1.13元
10、厦门市三安光电科技有限公司 技术标未通过
11、力诺集团股份有限公司 1.15元/kwh
三、青海河南20兆瓦并网发电特许权项目 11家投标人
1、中节能太阳能科技有限公司 1.024元
2、中广核太阳能开发有限公司联合体 1.1499元
3、龙源电力集团股份有限公司 1.088元/kwh
4、国电科技环保集团有限公司 0.8377元
5、深圳市拓日新能源科技股份有限公司 技术标未通过
6、特变电工新疆新能源股份有限公司 1.2元/kwh
7、大唐国际发电股份有限公司 1.02元
8、黄河上游水电开发有限责任公司 0.8286元 最低价
9、中环光伏系统有限公司联合体 0.98元
10、厦门三安光电科技有限公司 技术标未通过
11、华能新能源产业控股有限公司 0.955
四、甘肃白银20兆瓦并网发电特许权项目 8家投标人
1、中广核太阳能开发有限公司 1.0831元
2、国电科技环保集团有限公司 0.8812元
3、特变电工新疆新能源股份有限公司 1.2元/kwh
4、新天绿色能源股份有限公司 1.3067元
5、黄河上游水电开发有限责任公司 0.8929元
6、中国华电集团新能源发展有限公司 1.1483元
7、大唐甘肃发电和中海阳联合体 技术标未通过
8、中电国际新能源控股有限公司 0.8265元 最低价
五、甘肃金昌20兆瓦光伏并网发电特许权项目 9家投标人
1、中国恩菲工程技术有限公司 0.977元
2、中广核太阳能开发有限公司 0.898元
3、中节能太阳能科技有限公司联合体 0.8998元
4、国电科技环保集团有限公司 0.801元
5、甘肃电投辰旭投资开发有限责任公司 1.05元
6、常熟阿特斯阳光电力科技有限公司 技术标未通过
7、国投华靖电力控股有限公司 1.09元
8、中电国际新能源控股有限公司 0.8059元
9、华能新能源产业控股有限公司 0.7803元 最低价
六、甘肃武威20兆瓦光伏并网发电特许权项目 8家投标人
1、国电电力发展股份有限公司 1.0186元
2、中广核太阳能开发有限公司 0.9089元
3、浙江正泰太阳能开发有限公司 技术标未通过
4、甘肃电投辰旭投资开发有限责任公司 1.05元
5、黄河上游水电开发有限责任公司 1.0035元
6、中国大唐集团新能源控股有限公司 0.971元/kwh
7、中电国际新能源控股有限公司 0.8099元 最低价
8、中国光大国际有限公司 1.51元/kwh
七、内蒙古阿拉善20兆瓦光伏并网发电特许权项目 7家投标人
1、国电电力发展股份有限公司 1.0031元
2、中广核太阳能开发有限公司联合体 0.8899元
3、宁夏发电集团有限责任公司 技术标未通过
4、华电内蒙古能源有限公司 0.9899元
5、中国电力投资集团公司 0.925元/kwh
6、中环光伏联合体 1.06元
7、内蒙古国电能源投资有限公司 0.8847元 最低价
八、内蒙古包头20兆瓦并网发电特许权项目 16家投标人
1、中国恩菲工程技术有限公司 1.087元
2、国电电力发展股份有限公司 0.93647元
3、中盛光电能源股份有限公司 技术标未通过
4、中广核太阳能开发有限公司 0.9294元
5、中节能太阳能科技有限公司 0.9955元
6、包头鲁能白云鄂博风电有限责任公司 0.7978元 最低价
7、龙源电力集团股份有限公司 0.9916元
8、华电内蒙古能源有限公司 1.1545元
9、新天绿色能源股份有限公司 1.0857
10、内蒙古北方龙源风力发电有限公司 1.0985元
11、内蒙古神舟光伏电力有限公司 1.1465元
12、中国电力投资集团公司 0.88元/kwh
13、中环光伏系统有限公司联合体 1.07元
14、国电内蒙古电力有限公司 0.8988元
15、华能新能源产业控股有限公司 0.8539元
16、内蒙古国电能源投资有限公司 1.0986元
九、内蒙古巴彦淖尔20兆瓦光伏并网发电 10个招标人
1、中盛光电能源股份有限公司 技术标未通过
2、中广核太阳能开发有限公司 1.104元
3、大唐国际发电股份有限公司 0.9822元
4、浙江正泰太阳能科技有限公司 技术标未通过
5、国华能源投资有限公司 0.9857元
6、内蒙古北方龙源风力发电有限公司 1.0722元
7、中国华电集团新能源发展有限公司 1.0123元
8、中国电力投资集团公司 0.895元/kwh
9、中环光伏系统有限公司联合体 1.04元
10、内蒙古国电能源投资有限公司 0.8444元 最低价
十、宁夏青铜峡30兆瓦光伏并网发电特许项目 12家投标人
1、中广核太阳能开发有限公司 1.101元
2、中国恩菲工厂技术有限公司 1.077元
3、中节能太阳能科技有限公司 1.0745元
4、国电电力发展股份有限公司 1.15元
5、宁夏发电集团有限责任公司 1.146元
6、大唐国际发电股份有限公司 1.147元
7、中电投宁夏青铜峡能源铝业集团有限公司 1.146元
8、浙江正泰太阳能科技有限公司 1.21元
9、特变电工新疆新能源股份有限公司 1.23元/kwh
10、中环光伏系统有限公司联合体 1.09元
11、国投华靖新能源产业控股有限公司 1.35元/kwh
12、华能新能源产业控股有限公司 0.9791元 最低价
十一、新疆哈密20兆瓦光伏并网发电特许项目 16家投标人
1、国电电力发展股份有限公司 0.9766元
2、中节能太阳能科技有限公司联合体 0.8996元
3、中广核太阳能开发有限公司 0.86元元
4、国投华靖电力控股股份有限公司 0.978元/kwh
5、哈密鲁能煤化工开发有限公司 0.8961元
6、中电投新疆能源有限公司 0.7388元 最低价
7、浙江正泰太阳能科技有限公司 1.02元
8、特变电工新疆新能源股份有限公司 1.2元/kwh
9、中国华电集团新能源发展有限公司 1.2元/kwh
10、江西瑞晶太阳能科技有限公司 1.1154元
11、华能新疆能源开发有限公司 1.06元/kwh
12、国投华靖电力控股股份有限公司 1.16元/kwh
13、中环光伏系统有限公司联合体 1.15元
14、中电国际新能源控股有限公司 0.9112元
15、华能新能源产业控股有限公司 0.795元
16、大唐新疆开发有限公司 技术标未通过
十二、新疆吐鲁番20兆瓦并网发电特许权项目 8家投标人
1、中节能太阳能科技有限公司 1.0641元
2、中广核太阳能开发有限公司 0.96元
3、国电科技环保集团有限公司 0.9576元
4、中电投新疆能源有限公司 0.9317元 最低价
5、特变电工新疆新能源股份有限公司 1.28元/kwh
6、华能新疆能源开发有限公司 技术标未通过
7、中国大唐集团新能源股份有限公司 1.1759元
8、中环光伏系统有限公司联合体 1.08元
十三、新疆和田20兆瓦并网发电特许权项目 8家投标人
1、特变电工新疆硅业有限公司 1.12元/kwh
2、中广核太阳能开发有限公司 1.295元
3、龙源电力集团股份有限公司 1.1918元
4、中电投新疆能源有限公司 0.9907元 最低价
5、江西瑞晶太阳能科技有限公司 1.1478元
6、尚德能源和华能新疆能源开发联合体 1.145元
7、中国大唐集团新能源股份有限公司 1.1769元
8、中环光伏系统有限公司联合体 1.11元
http://www.solarzoom.com/article-155.html
一、陕西榆林靖边20兆瓦光伏并网发电特许权项目 11家投标人
1、中广核太阳能开发有限公司 1.13元/kwh含税
2、中节能太阳能科技有限公司 1.231元
3、国电科技环保集团有限公司 1.0315
4、陕西光伏产业有限公司 1.1182元
5、华电陕西能源有限公司 1.4元/kwh
6、深圳市拓日新能源科技股份有限公司 技术不合格
7、黄河上游水电开发有限责任公司 1.0765元
8、国华能源投资有限公司 0.8687元 最低价
9、中国大唐集团新能源股份有限公司 1.2999元
10、中环光伏系统有限公司联合体 1.14 元
11华能新能源产业控股有限公司 1.0839元
二、青海共和30兆瓦光伏并网发电特许权项目 11家投标人
1、国电电力发展股份有限公司 0.9153元
2、中节能太阳能科技有限公司 0.9638元
3、中广核太阳能开发有限公司 0.8595元
4、深圳市拓日新能源科技股份有限公司 技术标未通过
5、浙江正泰太阳能科技有限公司 1.21元
6、黄河上游水电开发有限责任公司 0.7288元 本轮最低价
7、中国华电集团新能源发展有限公司 1.1468元
8、中国大唐集团新能源股份有限公司 1.0998元
9、国投华靖电力控股有限公司 1.13元
10、厦门市三安光电科技有限公司 技术标未通过
11、力诺集团股份有限公司 1.15元/kwh
三、青海河南20兆瓦并网发电特许权项目 11家投标人
1、中节能太阳能科技有限公司 1.024元
2、中广核太阳能开发有限公司联合体 1.1499元
3、龙源电力集团股份有限公司 1.088元/kwh
4、国电科技环保集团有限公司 0.8377元
5、深圳市拓日新能源科技股份有限公司 技术标未通过
6、特变电工新疆新能源股份有限公司 1.2元/kwh
7、大唐国际发电股份有限公司 1.02元
8、黄河上游水电开发有限责任公司 0.8286元 最低价
9、中环光伏系统有限公司联合体 0.98元
10、厦门三安光电科技有限公司 技术标未通过
11、华能新能源产业控股有限公司 0.955
四、甘肃白银20兆瓦并网发电特许权项目 8家投标人
1、中广核太阳能开发有限公司 1.0831元
2、国电科技环保集团有限公司 0.8812元
3、特变电工新疆新能源股份有限公司 1.2元/kwh
4、新天绿色能源股份有限公司 1.3067元
5、黄河上游水电开发有限责任公司 0.8929元
6、中国华电集团新能源发展有限公司 1.1483元
7、大唐甘肃发电和中海阳联合体 技术标未通过
8、中电国际新能源控股有限公司 0.8265元 最低价
五、甘肃金昌20兆瓦光伏并网发电特许权项目 9家投标人
1、中国恩菲工程技术有限公司 0.977元
2、中广核太阳能开发有限公司 0.898元
3、中节能太阳能科技有限公司联合体 0.8998元
4、国电科技环保集团有限公司 0.801元
5、甘肃电投辰旭投资开发有限责任公司 1.05元
6、常熟阿特斯阳光电力科技有限公司 技术标未通过
7、国投华靖电力控股有限公司 1.09元
8、中电国际新能源控股有限公司 0.8059元
9、华能新能源产业控股有限公司 0.7803元 最低价
六、甘肃武威20兆瓦光伏并网发电特许权项目 8家投标人
1、国电电力发展股份有限公司 1.0186元
2、中广核太阳能开发有限公司 0.9089元
3、浙江正泰太阳能开发有限公司 技术标未通过
4、甘肃电投辰旭投资开发有限责任公司 1.05元
5、黄河上游水电开发有限责任公司 1.0035元
6、中国大唐集团新能源控股有限公司 0.971元/kwh
7、中电国际新能源控股有限公司 0.8099元 最低价
8、中国光大国际有限公司 1.51元/kwh
七、内蒙古阿拉善20兆瓦光伏并网发电特许权项目 7家投标人
1、国电电力发展股份有限公司 1.0031元
2、中广核太阳能开发有限公司联合体 0.8899元
3、宁夏发电集团有限责任公司 技术标未通过
4、华电内蒙古能源有限公司 0.9899元
5、中国电力投资集团公司 0.925元/kwh
6、中环光伏联合体 1.06元
7、内蒙古国电能源投资有限公司 0.8847元 最低价
八、内蒙古包头20兆瓦并网发电特许权项目 16家投标人
1、中国恩菲工程技术有限公司 1.087元
2、国电电力发展股份有限公司 0.93647元
3、中盛光电能源股份有限公司 技术标未通过
4、中广核太阳能开发有限公司 0.9294元
5、中节能太阳能科技有限公司 0.9955元
6、包头鲁能白云鄂博风电有限责任公司 0.7978元 最低价
7、龙源电力集团股份有限公司 0.9916元
8、华电内蒙古能源有限公司 1.1545元
9、新天绿色能源股份有限公司 1.0857
10、内蒙古北方龙源风力发电有限公司 1.0985元
11、内蒙古神舟光伏电力有限公司 1.1465元
12、中国电力投资集团公司 0.88元/kwh
13、中环光伏系统有限公司联合体 1.07元
14、国电内蒙古电力有限公司 0.8988元
15、华能新能源产业控股有限公司 0.8539元
16、内蒙古国电能源投资有限公司 1.0986元
九、内蒙古巴彦淖尔20兆瓦光伏并网发电 10个招标人
1、中盛光电能源股份有限公司 技术标未通过
2、中广核太阳能开发有限公司 1.104元
3、大唐国际发电股份有限公司 0.9822元
4、浙江正泰太阳能科技有限公司 技术标未通过
5、国华能源投资有限公司 0.9857元
6、内蒙古北方龙源风力发电有限公司 1.0722元
7、中国华电集团新能源发展有限公司 1.0123元
8、中国电力投资集团公司 0.895元/kwh
9、中环光伏系统有限公司联合体 1.04元
10、内蒙古国电能源投资有限公司 0.8444元 最低价
十、宁夏青铜峡30兆瓦光伏并网发电特许项目 12家投标人
1、中广核太阳能开发有限公司 1.101元
2、中国恩菲工厂技术有限公司 1.077元
3、中节能太阳能科技有限公司 1.0745元
4、国电电力发展股份有限公司 1.15元
5、宁夏发电集团有限责任公司 1.146元
6、大唐国际发电股份有限公司 1.147元
7、中电投宁夏青铜峡能源铝业集团有限公司 1.146元
8、浙江正泰太阳能科技有限公司 1.21元
9、特变电工新疆新能源股份有限公司 1.23元/kwh
10、中环光伏系统有限公司联合体 1.09元
11、国投华靖新能源产业控股有限公司 1.35元/kwh
12、华能新能源产业控股有限公司 0.9791元 最低价
十一、新疆哈密20兆瓦光伏并网发电特许项目 16家投标人
1、国电电力发展股份有限公司 0.9766元
2、中节能太阳能科技有限公司联合体 0.8996元
3、中广核太阳能开发有限公司 0.86元元
4、国投华靖电力控股股份有限公司 0.978元/kwh
5、哈密鲁能煤化工开发有限公司 0.8961元
6、中电投新疆能源有限公司 0.7388元 最低价
7、浙江正泰太阳能科技有限公司 1.02元
8、特变电工新疆新能源股份有限公司 1.2元/kwh
9、中国华电集团新能源发展有限公司 1.2元/kwh
10、江西瑞晶太阳能科技有限公司 1.1154元
11、华能新疆能源开发有限公司 1.06元/kwh
12、国投华靖电力控股股份有限公司 1.16元/kwh
13、中环光伏系统有限公司联合体 1.15元
14、中电国际新能源控股有限公司 0.9112元
15、华能新能源产业控股有限公司 0.795元
16、大唐新疆开发有限公司 技术标未通过
十二、新疆吐鲁番20兆瓦并网发电特许权项目 8家投标人
1、中节能太阳能科技有限公司 1.0641元
2、中广核太阳能开发有限公司 0.96元
3、国电科技环保集团有限公司 0.9576元
4、中电投新疆能源有限公司 0.9317元 最低价
5、特变电工新疆新能源股份有限公司 1.28元/kwh
6、华能新疆能源开发有限公司 技术标未通过
7、中国大唐集团新能源股份有限公司 1.1759元
8、中环光伏系统有限公司联合体 1.08元
十三、新疆和田20兆瓦并网发电特许权项目 8家投标人
1、特变电工新疆硅业有限公司 1.12元/kwh
2、中广核太阳能开发有限公司 1.295元
3、龙源电力集团股份有限公司 1.1918元
4、中电投新疆能源有限公司 0.9907元 最低价
5、江西瑞晶太阳能科技有限公司 1.1478元
6、尚德能源和华能新疆能源开发联合体 1.145元
7、中国大唐集团新能源股份有限公司 1.1769元
8、中环光伏系统有限公司联合体 1.11元
http://www.solarzoom.com/article-155.html
海南英利一期扩建项目开工
海南英利一期100兆瓦扩建项目开工 明年5月建成投产后生产规模将达200兆瓦
继海南英利年产100兆瓦多晶硅太阳能电池完整产业链项目一期工程投产后，8月19日，该工程的100兆瓦扩建项目正式开工。记者近日从海南英利新能源有限公司获悉，该项目明年5月竣工投产后，英利集团海南产业基地生产规模将达到200兆瓦。
据介绍，英利一期扩建项目总建筑面积1.66万平方米，项目计划总投资7.7亿元，预计明年5月投产，投产后可实现年均销售收入10.84亿元，年均利税3.52亿元，可带动1200人就业。
在一期扩建项目投产后，英利还将上马另外200兆瓦多晶硅太阳能电池完整产业链项目，以及200兆瓦单晶硅太阳能电池完整产业链项目。这两个项目建成投产后，生产规模将达到600兆瓦，形成包括从晶硅铸锭、切片、电池片、电池组件到光伏应用系统的完整产业链。
http://www.solarzoom.com/article-153.html
继海南英利年产100兆瓦多晶硅太阳能电池完整产业链项目一期工程投产后，8月19日，该工程的100兆瓦扩建项目正式开工。记者近日从海南英利新能源有限公司获悉，该项目明年5月竣工投产后，英利集团海南产业基地生产规模将达到200兆瓦。
据介绍，英利一期扩建项目总建筑面积1.66万平方米，项目计划总投资7.7亿元，预计明年5月投产，投产后可实现年均销售收入10.84亿元，年均利税3.52亿元，可带动1200人就业。
在一期扩建项目投产后，英利还将上马另外200兆瓦多晶硅太阳能电池完整产业链项目，以及200兆瓦单晶硅太阳能电池完整产业链项目。这两个项目建成投产后，生产规模将达到600兆瓦，形成包括从晶硅铸锭、切片、电池片、电池组件到光伏应用系统的完整产业链。
http://www.solarzoom.com/article-153.html
Thursday, August 19, 2010
China to Invest $15 billion in Electric and Hybrid Cars
The government said a group of 16 big state-owned companies had already agreed to form an alliance to do research and development, and create standards for electric and hybrid vehicles. The plan aims to put more than a million electric and hybrid vehicles on the road over the next few years in what is already the world’s biggest and fastest growing auto market.
According to some reports by state-run media, Beijing intends to invest nearly $15 billion in the venture, which if true would make it one of the world’s most ambitious attempts to develop more energy-efficient vehicles.
The bold plan was announced late Wednesday by one of China’s most powerful bodies: the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission. Sasac, as it is known, operates under China’s cabinet, or State Council. From Beijing, it oversees about 125 of China’s biggest state-owned companies.
Few details of the plan were released. But Beijing said that over the next three years, 500,000 energy-efficient vehicles would reach the market each year and that more-efficient vehicles would soon account for 5 percent of passenger car sales in China. This year, analysts expect vehicle sales in China to reach about 17 million.
The announcement came shortly after General Motors and S.A.I.C., which is based in Shanghai and is one of China’s other big state-controlled automakers, said they planned to form an alliance to develop more fuel-efficient engines and transmissions for global markets.
“What you have here is the confluence of two important things,” Professor Shenkar said. “The car industry was long ago designated as a pillar industry for China. And the second thing is green technology or high tech; this is where the action is going to be, and China wants to be there.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/20/business/energy-environment/20car.html?_r=1
According to some reports by state-run media, Beijing intends to invest nearly $15 billion in the venture, which if true would make it one of the world’s most ambitious attempts to develop more energy-efficient vehicles.
The bold plan was announced late Wednesday by one of China’s most powerful bodies: the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission. Sasac, as it is known, operates under China’s cabinet, or State Council. From Beijing, it oversees about 125 of China’s biggest state-owned companies.
Few details of the plan were released. But Beijing said that over the next three years, 500,000 energy-efficient vehicles would reach the market each year and that more-efficient vehicles would soon account for 5 percent of passenger car sales in China. This year, analysts expect vehicle sales in China to reach about 17 million.
The announcement came shortly after General Motors and S.A.I.C., which is based in Shanghai and is one of China’s other big state-controlled automakers, said they planned to form an alliance to develop more fuel-efficient engines and transmissions for global markets.
“What you have here is the confluence of two important things,” Professor Shenkar said. “The car industry was long ago designated as a pillar industry for China. And the second thing is green technology or high tech; this is where the action is going to be, and China wants to be there.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/20/business/energy-environment/20car.html?_r=1
LDK Solar: Too Big, Too Fast?
LDK Solar(LDK) is planning to build a solar manufacturing facility with 1 gigawatt of solar cell and 500 megawatts of solar module capacity. The manufacturing facility is expected to begin production in the second quarter of 2011, backed by $368 million in financing for up to three years from a Chinese lender.
Many of LDK Solar's Chinese peers are ramping up capacity and moving to a more vertically integrated model. Therefore, it's not a surprise that solar wafer maker LDK would be looking to branch out on the solar supply chain. However, LDK's plans are complicated by three factors: 1) its ongoing polysilicon plant ramp, 2) its balance sheet issues, and 3) potential oversupply in solar.
LDK just came off a solid second quarter, during which the Chinese solar wafer maker improved its balance sheet to an extent that LDK hadn't been able to achieve in the past two years.
>>Solar Winners & Losers: LDK Solar, SunPower
With $433 million in cash balance at the end of the second quarter, LDK seemed to buy itself some breathing room versus critics who worry that the company remains overstretched as it ramps up its polysilicon plant. One major negative in the recent earnings was that the polysilicon plant ramp schedule, already delayed many times, seemed still behind schedule, even as it showed signs of progress.
"Certainly, in a traditional Wall Street sense, you would like to see LDK get the poly plant up and running and get the debt from the poly plant construction paid down before moving on to the next large scale program," said Soleil Securities analyst Paul Leming. "It's very clear that LDK knows only one speed, and that's 'damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead,'" the analyst added.
Solar is a commodity business and increasing market share means engineering lower costs. LDK is merely moving in the direction of all the Chinese solar players, whether it is a solar cell player like JA Solar(JASO) moving into solar modules, a solar module leader like Yingli Green Energy(YGE) moving into polysilicon production, or a relatively new entrant like Jinko Solar(JKS) moving out from polysilicon production to all aspects of the solar supply chain.
LDK purchased a solar module maker earlier in the year, and signaled at its last analyst meeting that it would be looking to further vertically integrate. With polysilicon production at one end, wafers in the middle and solar cell and module production at the other, LDK would be in a position to achieve cost efficiencies across the solar supply chain.
The need to vertically integrate is a reason that an investor can't rush to quick judgment on LDK's decision to make another major capital commitment, even when the jury is still out on its last commitment. "There are aspects of this decision that get a thumbs up and others a thumbs down. It's not cut and dry," Soleil's Leming said.
More on LDK
Short Yamana Gold, Whirlpool, and BB&T. Maintain buys on Archer Daniels Midland, Motorola, LDK Solar, Lloyds, and ING.Solar Winners & Losers: LDK, SunPowerCisco Weighs on Tech ETFsMarket Activity
The vertically integrated solar model makes sense, but strategy is only one half of the equation, and LDK will need to execute. In the least, manufacture of solar cells and modules is less capital intensive and less tricky than the raw polysilicon operations.
The LDK decision to plow ahead to 1 GW of solar cell capacity and 500 MW of modules at a time when there are fears of potential oversupply in 2011 does circle back to the biggest debate in solar: Are the Chinese solar companies overproducing and setting up solar for a major oversupply in 2011? And if LDK is even on schedule with its second quarter 2011 cell and module manufacturing, could it be selling into a glut?
Investors skeptical that demand will stay strong in 2011 as the German market slowdown plays out -- and other European nations reduce feed-in tariffs -- might think that it would be wiser of LDK to wait out any solar demand lull before putting its capital into the ground, so to speak. However, if demand does not slow in 2011, then it's the solar companies with the boldest plans that will benefit the most from economies of scale offered by vertical integration.
At present, the overcapacity issue is part of a larger debate impacting all solar companies, and for LDK the immediate and more interesting question is the financial capability to keep building at a fairly high rate
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10836928/1/ldk-solar-too-big-too-fast.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEFI
Many of LDK Solar's Chinese peers are ramping up capacity and moving to a more vertically integrated model. Therefore, it's not a surprise that solar wafer maker LDK would be looking to branch out on the solar supply chain. However, LDK's plans are complicated by three factors: 1) its ongoing polysilicon plant ramp, 2) its balance sheet issues, and 3) potential oversupply in solar.
LDK just came off a solid second quarter, during which the Chinese solar wafer maker improved its balance sheet to an extent that LDK hadn't been able to achieve in the past two years.
>>Solar Winners & Losers: LDK Solar, SunPower
With $433 million in cash balance at the end of the second quarter, LDK seemed to buy itself some breathing room versus critics who worry that the company remains overstretched as it ramps up its polysilicon plant. One major negative in the recent earnings was that the polysilicon plant ramp schedule, already delayed many times, seemed still behind schedule, even as it showed signs of progress.
"Certainly, in a traditional Wall Street sense, you would like to see LDK get the poly plant up and running and get the debt from the poly plant construction paid down before moving on to the next large scale program," said Soleil Securities analyst Paul Leming. "It's very clear that LDK knows only one speed, and that's 'damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead,'" the analyst added.
Solar is a commodity business and increasing market share means engineering lower costs. LDK is merely moving in the direction of all the Chinese solar players, whether it is a solar cell player like JA Solar(JASO) moving into solar modules, a solar module leader like Yingli Green Energy(YGE) moving into polysilicon production, or a relatively new entrant like Jinko Solar(JKS) moving out from polysilicon production to all aspects of the solar supply chain.
LDK purchased a solar module maker earlier in the year, and signaled at its last analyst meeting that it would be looking to further vertically integrate. With polysilicon production at one end, wafers in the middle and solar cell and module production at the other, LDK would be in a position to achieve cost efficiencies across the solar supply chain.
The need to vertically integrate is a reason that an investor can't rush to quick judgment on LDK's decision to make another major capital commitment, even when the jury is still out on its last commitment. "There are aspects of this decision that get a thumbs up and others a thumbs down. It's not cut and dry," Soleil's Leming said.
More on LDK
Short Yamana Gold, Whirlpool, and BB&T. Maintain buys on Archer Daniels Midland, Motorola, LDK Solar, Lloyds, and ING.Solar Winners & Losers: LDK, SunPowerCisco Weighs on Tech ETFsMarket Activity
The vertically integrated solar model makes sense, but strategy is only one half of the equation, and LDK will need to execute. In the least, manufacture of solar cells and modules is less capital intensive and less tricky than the raw polysilicon operations.
The LDK decision to plow ahead to 1 GW of solar cell capacity and 500 MW of modules at a time when there are fears of potential oversupply in 2011 does circle back to the biggest debate in solar: Are the Chinese solar companies overproducing and setting up solar for a major oversupply in 2011? And if LDK is even on schedule with its second quarter 2011 cell and module manufacturing, could it be selling into a glut?
Investors skeptical that demand will stay strong in 2011 as the German market slowdown plays out -- and other European nations reduce feed-in tariffs -- might think that it would be wiser of LDK to wait out any solar demand lull before putting its capital into the ground, so to speak. However, if demand does not slow in 2011, then it's the solar companies with the boldest plans that will benefit the most from economies of scale offered by vertical integration.
At present, the overcapacity issue is part of a larger debate impacting all solar companies, and for LDK the immediate and more interesting question is the financial capability to keep building at a fairly high rate
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10836928/1/ldk-solar-too-big-too-fast.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEFI
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
多晶硅价格3个月涨幅超30%
Source: Nanjixing Daily
下半年以来，国际多晶硅价格显着上涨，多家上市公司表示已感受到多晶硅价格回升带来的暖意。资料显示，由于下游太阳能电池组件需求旺盛，多晶硅材料和产品供不应求，价格持续上涨。而根据相关统计，多晶硅价格从今年5月初至今的涨幅超过30%。
据记者了解，在国内市场不仅多晶硅价格上涨，而且有钱也并不一定就能买到多晶硅现货。一些多晶硅下游光伏组件厂商因为无法获得稳定的多晶硅供给，已经开始向多晶硅生产企业派出采购人员贴近采购市场。在今年年初仍是买方市场的多晶硅领域，目前已转变为卖方市场。
华南地区一家从事多晶硅生产的上市公司内部人士告诉记者：“确实已经感受到了价格回暖，不过，由于我们原本毛利率就比较高，因此暂时还不能推测价格上涨给我们业绩带来的提升幅度。”
多晶硅短缺和价格上升使得上市公司受益已是事实，而引发这场多晶硅价格回升的主要原因仍众说纷纭。光大证券分析师王海生认为，光伏市场需求超出所有人的预期、国内多晶硅产能释放进程低于预期加上市场的炒作是此轮多晶硅价格回升的主要原因。
而此前曾有分析指出，由于德国宣布将于今年下半年开始降低光伏发电补贴额度，因此部分运营商加紧建设光伏电站导致上游太阳能组件和多晶硅等行业出现供不应求的局面。
天威保变董秘尹晓南告诉记者：“我们认为这次多晶硅价格上升的主要原因是下游光伏发电组件市场需求量突然放大，而国内多晶硅产能释放并不充分，供给和需求的变化导致了价格上涨。”
对于此轮多晶硅价格上涨能持续多久，市场分析人士显得相对乐观。王海生认为，在年底前，市场如果没有利空因素出现，多晶硅价格不会出现明显回落，上游硅料厂盈利能力的提升将是中期趋势。
但拥有多晶硅生产业务的上市公司却对此相当谨慎，尹晓南就告诉记者，光伏太阳能是个新兴产业，需求和供给的波动很大，因此很难判断这轮价格反弹能持续多久。
下半年以来，国际多晶硅价格显着上涨，多家上市公司表示已感受到多晶硅价格回升带来的暖意。资料显示，由于下游太阳能电池组件需求旺盛，多晶硅材料和产品供不应求，价格持续上涨。而根据相关统计，多晶硅价格从今年5月初至今的涨幅超过30%。
据记者了解，在国内市场不仅多晶硅价格上涨，而且有钱也并不一定就能买到多晶硅现货。一些多晶硅下游光伏组件厂商因为无法获得稳定的多晶硅供给，已经开始向多晶硅生产企业派出采购人员贴近采购市场。在今年年初仍是买方市场的多晶硅领域，目前已转变为卖方市场。
华南地区一家从事多晶硅生产的上市公司内部人士告诉记者：“确实已经感受到了价格回暖，不过，由于我们原本毛利率就比较高，因此暂时还不能推测价格上涨给我们业绩带来的提升幅度。”
多晶硅短缺和价格上升使得上市公司受益已是事实，而引发这场多晶硅价格回升的主要原因仍众说纷纭。光大证券分析师王海生认为，光伏市场需求超出所有人的预期、国内多晶硅产能释放进程低于预期加上市场的炒作是此轮多晶硅价格回升的主要原因。
而此前曾有分析指出，由于德国宣布将于今年下半年开始降低光伏发电补贴额度，因此部分运营商加紧建设光伏电站导致上游太阳能组件和多晶硅等行业出现供不应求的局面。
天威保变董秘尹晓南告诉记者：“我们认为这次多晶硅价格上升的主要原因是下游光伏发电组件市场需求量突然放大，而国内多晶硅产能释放并不充分，供给和需求的变化导致了价格上涨。”
对于此轮多晶硅价格上涨能持续多久，市场分析人士显得相对乐观。王海生认为，在年底前，市场如果没有利空因素出现，多晶硅价格不会出现明显回落，上游硅料厂盈利能力的提升将是中期趋势。
但拥有多晶硅生产业务的上市公司却对此相当谨慎，尹晓南就告诉记者，光伏太阳能是个新兴产业，需求和供给的波动很大，因此很难判断这轮价格反弹能持续多久。
China solar: On-grid tariffs of Rmb0.73-0.99/kWh likely
From DB
Overwhelming interest from state-owned power gencos
According to Caijing today, the final outcome of China's second round bidding
for 13 on-grid solar PV projects (280MW in total) is expected to be announced soon. The on-grid tariffs for winning bids are likely to be between Rmb0.7288/kWh (US$0.11/kWh) to Rmb0.9907/kWh (US$0.15/kWh), 9-37% below the tariffs for earlier projects. According to Caijing winning bidders are likely to be state-owned IPPs (Huaneng, Datang, Huadian, Guodian, China Power Investment Group, and Guangdong Nuclear) and China Energy Conservation Investment.
Mid-single digit project IRR on our estimate
Based on the above tariffs, project IRR is likely to be around mid-single digit. We believe such a low level is mostly driven by the “land acquisitive" mentality of state-owned companies which are willing to accept a relatively low
return so as to establish presence. Project construction period would be c.
2 years, which could allow some scope for return enhancement if module
and balance of system costs decline in the coming quarters. However, a
high-single digit project IRR would still be challenging in our view.
Remain positive on the China solar PV market longer-term
At such level of tariffs, margin for supplying solar PV modules in China would
likely be less attractive vs. to European countries. However, we believe a
lower module production cost of less than US$1/W in 2011E would allow
integrated players such as Yingli and Trina to still earn a reasonable margin.
Through supplying modules and establishing a long-term relationship with
state-owned power gencos, we think Trina, Yingli, and Suntech are likely to
capture major market share when the market becomes more scalable in the
next 3-5 years. We expect aggregate on-grid solar installed capacity to reach 5GW by 2015 and 20GW by 2020 (from less than1GW in 2010).
Overwhelming interest from state-owned power gencos
According to Caijing today, the final outcome of China's second round bidding
for 13 on-grid solar PV projects (280MW in total) is expected to be announced soon. The on-grid tariffs for winning bids are likely to be between Rmb0.7288/kWh (US$0.11/kWh) to Rmb0.9907/kWh (US$0.15/kWh), 9-37% below the tariffs for earlier projects. According to Caijing winning bidders are likely to be state-owned IPPs (Huaneng, Datang, Huadian, Guodian, China Power Investment Group, and Guangdong Nuclear) and China Energy Conservation Investment.
Mid-single digit project IRR on our estimate
Based on the above tariffs, project IRR is likely to be around mid-single digit. We believe such a low level is mostly driven by the “land acquisitive" mentality of state-owned companies which are willing to accept a relatively low
return so as to establish presence. Project construction period would be c.
2 years, which could allow some scope for return enhancement if module
and balance of system costs decline in the coming quarters. However, a
high-single digit project IRR would still be challenging in our view.
Remain positive on the China solar PV market longer-term
At such level of tariffs, margin for supplying solar PV modules in China would
likely be less attractive vs. to European countries. However, we believe a
lower module production cost of less than US$1/W in 2011E would allow
integrated players such as Yingli and Trina to still earn a reasonable margin.
Through supplying modules and establishing a long-term relationship with
state-owned power gencos, we think Trina, Yingli, and Suntech are likely to
capture major market share when the market becomes more scalable in the
next 3-5 years. We expect aggregate on-grid solar installed capacity to reach 5GW by 2015 and 20GW by 2020 (from less than1GW in 2010).
“国家队”完胜光伏竞标大战 最低报价0.7288元
From Solarbe
一场聚焦诸多眼球的光伏争夺战，有了中期结果。
据本报记者从权威渠道获悉，8月16日，国家280兆瓦大型光伏电站特许权项目的竞标价格在北京九华山庄开标。在参与投标的13个项目中，参投企业的最低价位都探底到0.7元左右，其中最低价达到0.7288元。
这是继2009年敦煌10兆瓦光伏电站特许权招标项目以来，第二次国家大型光伏招标项目。相隔短短一年，其规模扩大十倍，而本次报出的最低价，相比敦煌项目0.69元的最低价，只高出0.03元。
据本报记者了解，“国家队”对这次招标表现出了极大的热情。在招标的过程中，共有50家企业递交了135分标书，其中，中广核太阳能开发有限公司参与了全部13个项目的招标，而中节能太阳能科技有限公司也参与了8个项目的招标。而从目前唱出的竞标价格来看，各个项目的最低价都被国企包揽，中电投，华能，国电成为最大赢家。
根据招标的流程，在价格开标之后将进入审核期，招标委员会将根据上交的标书对投标企业资质进行审核，在完成审核之后，由“合理”的最低价中标。
据本报记者从参与招标政策制定的有关人士处获悉，为了避免敦煌项目出现的报价过低的情况出现，在本次招标的评审过程中，特别赋予了评审专家组新的权力。
即专家组将按照项目的利润比例，对招标结果加以限制，明显价格低于成本的报价将无法通过最终的评审。
因此，此次报出的最低价是否是合理的最低价，最终成为本论招标的结果？答案将于本周揭晓。
国家队完胜竞标大战
据16日唱出的竞标价格，在135份标书中，投标企业给出的价格都在0.7-1.09元之间，但是13个项目的最低价都在0.7元左右。其中最低价是由黄河上游水电开发有限责任公司报出的0.7288元。
13个项目的最低价，都由国企报出，成为此次开标的特点。其中，中电投集团子公司抢到了7个最低价，华能和国电集团抢到了2个最低价。
据招标过程中公布的信息，本次国家280兆瓦大型光伏电站特许权项目包括陕西榆林靖边县，青海共和县、河南县，甘肃白银市、金昌市、武威市，内蒙古阿拉善盟、包头市、巴彦淖尔市，宁夏青铜峡市，新疆哈密市、吐鲁番市、和田市6个省（区）的13个项目。
项目通过公开招标选择投资企业，采用特许权方式建设管理，特许经营期25年。单个项目不再拆分竞标，但允许竞标单位竞标多个项目，竞标单位要负责项目的设计、投资、建设、运营、维护和拆除。
事实上，上一轮光伏招标中，“联合体”成为主力。但从目前出炉的最低价报价者来看，不同于去年，国企全面代替了联合体。
“去年参标的，多是以尚德、英利、天合等组件公司为主，而在今年在竞标名单中，则很少看到英利控股、林洋新能源和常州天合们的影子了。他们选择作为供应商的方式参与。”中投顾问能源行业首席研究员姜谦表示。
而对于采取这种策略的用意，姜谦表示，每个光伏企业的成本目前在什么水平，业内人一看就知道。要是直接参与投标，竞争对手就容易对其报价有一个大概的判断，“如果直接让合作者国有发电集团出面，情况就不一样了”。
还有一个不可忽视的因素就是，按照本次竞标的要求，每个标的需要500万保证金，押金期长达14个月。
除此之外，竞标公司还必须有10%的项目资本金，公司融资方案中，必须有30%的自有资金。
“这些要求都不是普通的民企轻易能够达到的，这也是国企在本次的竞标中形成‘围标’态势的原因之一。”中国可再生能源学会副理事长孟宪淦表示。
价格玄机
0.7288元的最低价一经开出，“情理之中，意料之外”成了大多数在场的竞标者共同的感受。
“这个价格比敦煌项目最终废标的0.69元只高出三分钱，而当时业内就已经争论过这个价钱，按照大部分企业的测算，这个价格的利润空间微乎其微了。”一位参与竞标的企业负责人表示。
事实上，之前业内比较理想的上网电价在1.4元/千瓦时左右，而针对此次竞标的心理估价也都在1.09元左右。
但是企业的预判，并未获得决策者的认同。
“由于目前光伏发电的成本依旧偏高，而要实现大规模的发展，必须进一步的降低光伏发电的上网电价。”一位参与招标政策制定的官员对本报记者表示，实行特许权招标，正是为了实现这一目的。
该官员表示，要在国内大规模的发展光伏发电，必须要将上网电价降低到0.7元以下。如果本次招标的最终价格高于1.09元，则宁可选择流标。
对于业界期待和政府预期价格的巨大差距，光伏发电市场的降价趋势目前已经十分明显，在去年敦煌项目0.69元/千瓦时的基础上，招标价格不太可能回升。
同时，在本次的招标中，给出的项目建设期为两年，因此企业在报价的过程中，可以推算两年后的上网价格，应该会比目前价格有所降低。
但是，为了避免再次出现敦煌项目“赔本赚吆喝”的超低价格，据前述官员介绍，在本次招标的评审过程中，赋予了评审专家组新的权力，专家组将按照项目的利润比例对招标结果加以限制，明显价格低于成本的报价将无法通过最终的评审。
“通过这次招标，政府将再次摸清光伏市场真实的价格底线和生产状况，从而为下一步正式出台光伏上网电价打下基础。”前述官员表示。
一场聚焦诸多眼球的光伏争夺战，有了中期结果。
据本报记者从权威渠道获悉，8月16日，国家280兆瓦大型光伏电站特许权项目的竞标价格在北京九华山庄开标。在参与投标的13个项目中，参投企业的最低价位都探底到0.7元左右，其中最低价达到0.7288元。
这是继2009年敦煌10兆瓦光伏电站特许权招标项目以来，第二次国家大型光伏招标项目。相隔短短一年，其规模扩大十倍，而本次报出的最低价，相比敦煌项目0.69元的最低价，只高出0.03元。
据本报记者了解，“国家队”对这次招标表现出了极大的热情。在招标的过程中，共有50家企业递交了135分标书，其中，中广核太阳能开发有限公司参与了全部13个项目的招标，而中节能太阳能科技有限公司也参与了8个项目的招标。而从目前唱出的竞标价格来看，各个项目的最低价都被国企包揽，中电投，华能，国电成为最大赢家。
根据招标的流程，在价格开标之后将进入审核期，招标委员会将根据上交的标书对投标企业资质进行审核，在完成审核之后，由“合理”的最低价中标。
据本报记者从参与招标政策制定的有关人士处获悉，为了避免敦煌项目出现的报价过低的情况出现，在本次招标的评审过程中，特别赋予了评审专家组新的权力。
即专家组将按照项目的利润比例，对招标结果加以限制，明显价格低于成本的报价将无法通过最终的评审。
因此，此次报出的最低价是否是合理的最低价，最终成为本论招标的结果？答案将于本周揭晓。
国家队完胜竞标大战
据16日唱出的竞标价格，在135份标书中，投标企业给出的价格都在0.7-1.09元之间，但是13个项目的最低价都在0.7元左右。其中最低价是由黄河上游水电开发有限责任公司报出的0.7288元。
13个项目的最低价，都由国企报出，成为此次开标的特点。其中，中电投集团子公司抢到了7个最低价，华能和国电集团抢到了2个最低价。
据招标过程中公布的信息，本次国家280兆瓦大型光伏电站特许权项目包括陕西榆林靖边县，青海共和县、河南县，甘肃白银市、金昌市、武威市，内蒙古阿拉善盟、包头市、巴彦淖尔市，宁夏青铜峡市，新疆哈密市、吐鲁番市、和田市6个省（区）的13个项目。
项目通过公开招标选择投资企业，采用特许权方式建设管理，特许经营期25年。单个项目不再拆分竞标，但允许竞标单位竞标多个项目，竞标单位要负责项目的设计、投资、建设、运营、维护和拆除。
事实上，上一轮光伏招标中，“联合体”成为主力。但从目前出炉的最低价报价者来看，不同于去年，国企全面代替了联合体。
“去年参标的，多是以尚德、英利、天合等组件公司为主，而在今年在竞标名单中，则很少看到英利控股、林洋新能源和常州天合们的影子了。他们选择作为供应商的方式参与。”中投顾问能源行业首席研究员姜谦表示。
而对于采取这种策略的用意，姜谦表示，每个光伏企业的成本目前在什么水平，业内人一看就知道。要是直接参与投标，竞争对手就容易对其报价有一个大概的判断，“如果直接让合作者国有发电集团出面，情况就不一样了”。
还有一个不可忽视的因素就是，按照本次竞标的要求，每个标的需要500万保证金，押金期长达14个月。
除此之外，竞标公司还必须有10%的项目资本金，公司融资方案中，必须有30%的自有资金。
“这些要求都不是普通的民企轻易能够达到的，这也是国企在本次的竞标中形成‘围标’态势的原因之一。”中国可再生能源学会副理事长孟宪淦表示。
价格玄机
0.7288元的最低价一经开出，“情理之中，意料之外”成了大多数在场的竞标者共同的感受。
“这个价格比敦煌项目最终废标的0.69元只高出三分钱，而当时业内就已经争论过这个价钱，按照大部分企业的测算，这个价格的利润空间微乎其微了。”一位参与竞标的企业负责人表示。
事实上，之前业内比较理想的上网电价在1.4元/千瓦时左右，而针对此次竞标的心理估价也都在1.09元左右。
但是企业的预判，并未获得决策者的认同。
“由于目前光伏发电的成本依旧偏高，而要实现大规模的发展，必须进一步的降低光伏发电的上网电价。”一位参与招标政策制定的官员对本报记者表示，实行特许权招标，正是为了实现这一目的。
该官员表示，要在国内大规模的发展光伏发电，必须要将上网电价降低到0.7元以下。如果本次招标的最终价格高于1.09元，则宁可选择流标。
对于业界期待和政府预期价格的巨大差距，光伏发电市场的降价趋势目前已经十分明显，在去年敦煌项目0.69元/千瓦时的基础上，招标价格不太可能回升。
同时，在本次的招标中，给出的项目建设期为两年，因此企业在报价的过程中，可以推算两年后的上网价格，应该会比目前价格有所降低。
但是，为了避免再次出现敦煌项目“赔本赚吆喝”的超低价格，据前述官员介绍，在本次招标的评审过程中，赋予了评审专家组新的权力，专家组将按照项目的利润比例对招标结果加以限制，明显价格低于成本的报价将无法通过最终的评审。
“通过这次招标，政府将再次摸清光伏市场真实的价格底线和生产状况，从而为下一步正式出台光伏上网电价打下基础。”前述官员表示。
For Foreigners, China's Solar Market Is Cloudy
From WSJ
In August, talk of the sun and protection is usually linked to the beach. This year, in China, it's about access to the country's fast-growing solar-power industry.
China's National Energy Administration has taken bids from solar-power developers to build out 13 projects around the country that will add 280 megawatts of solar power capacity. This will almost double the current level of solar-power capacity, and it's another step on China's path toward greater reliance on renewable energy. Solar power, it's hoped, will contribute as much as 20 gigawatts of energy by 2020.
A technician does waterproof work on the roof of a newly-built greenhouse powered by solar energy in east China's Shandong Province.
.It seems like a compelling opportunity for the world's solar-power players, but the light of Chinese favor isn't shining on foreign companies. Of the 135 bids put in by more than 40 companies for the contracts currently on offer, only one came from a non-Chinese outfit.
In part, this is down to domestic companies' ability to compete on price, based on their own lower labor costs. Analysts at HSBC predict Chinese companies such as Trina, Suntech Power Holdings and Yingli Green Energy—all listed on the New York Stock Exchange—will become ever more prominent as the solar-power market becomes more weighted toward large-scale installations rather than residential sales, in which case, cost, rather than branding, is the key to success.
But also putting off outsiders is uncertainty about the tariffs China's electricity grids will pay for the power generated at these projects. Without knowing this, it's hard for developers to run the sums on their investment's potential return. Consider the challenges faced by U.S.-based First Solar: A supposed landmark project for it to build the world's largest solar-power plant in Inner Mongolia, signed last year, has stalled over concerns about funding and the tariff First Solar will be paid.
This time around, foreign companies aren't even prepared to put in token bids for Chinese solar projects, even though showing willingness now might pay dividends as the market continues its rapid expansion.
Mutterings that thinly veiled protectionism would anyway see most of the contracts go to domestic players may not be wholly justified. But the lack of foreign enthusiasm is understandable. For them, the outlook on China's solar-power market is cloudy.
In August, talk of the sun and protection is usually linked to the beach. This year, in China, it's about access to the country's fast-growing solar-power industry.
China's National Energy Administration has taken bids from solar-power developers to build out 13 projects around the country that will add 280 megawatts of solar power capacity. This will almost double the current level of solar-power capacity, and it's another step on China's path toward greater reliance on renewable energy. Solar power, it's hoped, will contribute as much as 20 gigawatts of energy by 2020.
A technician does waterproof work on the roof of a newly-built greenhouse powered by solar energy in east China's Shandong Province.
.It seems like a compelling opportunity for the world's solar-power players, but the light of Chinese favor isn't shining on foreign companies. Of the 135 bids put in by more than 40 companies for the contracts currently on offer, only one came from a non-Chinese outfit.
In part, this is down to domestic companies' ability to compete on price, based on their own lower labor costs. Analysts at HSBC predict Chinese companies such as Trina, Suntech Power Holdings and Yingli Green Energy—all listed on the New York Stock Exchange—will become ever more prominent as the solar-power market becomes more weighted toward large-scale installations rather than residential sales, in which case, cost, rather than branding, is the key to success.
But also putting off outsiders is uncertainty about the tariffs China's electricity grids will pay for the power generated at these projects. Without knowing this, it's hard for developers to run the sums on their investment's potential return. Consider the challenges faced by U.S.-based First Solar: A supposed landmark project for it to build the world's largest solar-power plant in Inner Mongolia, signed last year, has stalled over concerns about funding and the tariff First Solar will be paid.
This time around, foreign companies aren't even prepared to put in token bids for Chinese solar projects, even though showing willingness now might pay dividends as the market continues its rapid expansion.
Mutterings that thinly veiled protectionism would anyway see most of the contracts go to domestic players may not be wholly justified. But the lack of foreign enthusiasm is understandable. For them, the outlook on China's solar-power market is cloudy.
Monday, August 16, 2010
New Battery Tech Could Cut Electric Car Battery Pack Costs by 85%
Source: Daily Tech
Company plans to have new battery on the market in five years
There is much promise in the evolving world of battery technologies for many of the devices that we use every day. Better battery tech means notebooks that can operate longer per charge, cell phones we can talk on for longer, and electric cars that can travel longer distances. With all of the aspects of technology that the battery touches, a breakthrough here can have very far reaching effects.
Yet-Ming Chiang, a researcher and founder of A123 Systems, has developed a new battery design that he claims could make electric vehicles much cheaper. Chiang has started a new company to commercialize the battery technology called 24M. The researcher says that the new battery he has designed could cut costs of the battery packs for electric vehicles, such as the Chevrolet Volt, by as much as 85%.
That cut in price on the battery pack, which can cost as much as $10,000, has the potential to significantly affect the price of electric vehicles and make them more cost competitive with traditional gasoline vehicles. A24 has raised $10 million in venture capital and an additional $6 million from Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy or ARPA-E. The money will be used to fund collaboration between A24, MIT, and Rutgers University.
Chiang is offering no details on the battery technology and only gives cryptic details on the battery he has developed. What information he will offer is that the battery is a semisolid energy storage device and that it uses tech that combines the best attributes of conventional batteries, fuel cells, and flow batteries.
Chiang said, "In a typical rechargeable battery, only half of it is actual energy-storing materials. The rest is supporting materials. That's a problem I've been thinking about for years--how do you improve the efficiency of the design?"
Chiang says that a fuel cell doesn’t have to deal with that problem, but the hydrogen isn't easy to come by today for a fuel cell. Like a fuel cell, Chiang says that his battery can store large amounts of energy, but it doesn't need huge amounts of supporting materials like a typical flow battery. The design is also said to work with a wide range of chemicals. A proof-of-concept battery has been produced and works, which was used to secure the funding granted by ARPA-E.
The goal is to have the new battery in the field within the next five years.
http://www.dailytech.com/New+Battery+Tech+Could+Cut+Electric+Car+Battery+Pack+Costs+by+85/article19353.htm
Company plans to have new battery on the market in five years
There is much promise in the evolving world of battery technologies for many of the devices that we use every day. Better battery tech means notebooks that can operate longer per charge, cell phones we can talk on for longer, and electric cars that can travel longer distances. With all of the aspects of technology that the battery touches, a breakthrough here can have very far reaching effects.
Yet-Ming Chiang, a researcher and founder of A123 Systems, has developed a new battery design that he claims could make electric vehicles much cheaper. Chiang has started a new company to commercialize the battery technology called 24M. The researcher says that the new battery he has designed could cut costs of the battery packs for electric vehicles, such as the Chevrolet Volt, by as much as 85%.
That cut in price on the battery pack, which can cost as much as $10,000, has the potential to significantly affect the price of electric vehicles and make them more cost competitive with traditional gasoline vehicles. A24 has raised $10 million in venture capital and an additional $6 million from Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy or ARPA-E. The money will be used to fund collaboration between A24, MIT, and Rutgers University.
Chiang is offering no details on the battery technology and only gives cryptic details on the battery he has developed. What information he will offer is that the battery is a semisolid energy storage device and that it uses tech that combines the best attributes of conventional batteries, fuel cells, and flow batteries.
Chiang said, "In a typical rechargeable battery, only half of it is actual energy-storing materials. The rest is supporting materials. That's a problem I've been thinking about for years--how do you improve the efficiency of the design?"
Chiang says that a fuel cell doesn’t have to deal with that problem, but the hydrogen isn't easy to come by today for a fuel cell. Like a fuel cell, Chiang says that his battery can store large amounts of energy, but it doesn't need huge amounts of supporting materials like a typical flow battery. The design is also said to work with a wide range of chemicals. A proof-of-concept battery has been produced and works, which was used to secure the funding granted by ARPA-E.
The goal is to have the new battery in the field within the next five years.
http://www.dailytech.com/New+Battery+Tech+Could+Cut+Electric+Car+Battery+Pack+Costs+by+85/article19353.htm
The Pressure on Natural Gas
Source: WSJ
For America's natural-gas producers, even a hurricane would seem like a breath of fresh air.
Overworked air conditioners fueling demand for gas-fired electricity raised gas prices earlier this summer, when futures for the coming winter rallied above $6 per million British thermal units. It didn't last: Now they are under $5. There are implications not just for exploration and production (E&P) companies, but also electricity generators. Investors in chemicals stocks should also take note.
The exploitation of unconventional resources such as shale gas has pushed U.S. reserves and production back up to levels not seen since the early 1970s. Barring hurricanes and an exceptionally cold winter, prices look set to stay weak.
.Usually, the cure for a low gas price is a low gas price, which spurs demand and discourages drilling. Announcing second-quarter results, however, most producers said output would continue rising.
One reason is "use it or lose it" clauses on land leases signed by E&P companies. Some $76 billion was spent on shale gas acquisitions between 2005 and 2009, according to IHS Herold. That is a lot of sunk capital to walk away from.
The Federal Reserve's zero rate policy facilitates this drilling habit by pushing investors toward riskier assets. (I thought zero rate policy is pushing investors toward less risky assets. But now corporate can definitely sell more junk bond. Maybe that's what it meant -- riskier asset) Just last week, for example, Chesapeake Energy raised $2 billion of debt, $400 million more than it wanted originally. Overall, the sector has raised $23.5 billion in mostly high-yield debt so far this year, according to Jonathan Wolff at Credit Suisse, almost as much as for all of 2009. He estimates gas-focused producers will reinvest 165% of cash flow this year.
High spending, fueling cost inflation and excess supply, will squeeze profits. Investors should target those E&P companies producing more oil and natural gas liquids (NGL), which command higher prices relative to gas. Newfield Exploration, for example, is shifting investment towards liquid and, helped by price hedging, is not outspending its cash flow.
Beyond the E&P sector, low gas prices spell trouble for merchant electricity generators: Witness Dynegy's decision to sell out to Blackstone Group on Friday, rather than soldier on. Because gas-fired generation sets the electricity price in most U.S. regions, electricity revenues follow gas prices down even as costs of fuel like coal remain stable. Of the group, Calpine offers some shelter because its power stations are mostly gas-fired, meaning revenues and costs move together, thereby protecting margins .
One group that stands to benefit from low gas prices are U.S. chemicals producers. Ethane is a dominant form of NGL used to make ethylene, a basic chemical building block. As gas producers target more liquids production, so the price of NGLs has fallen and should stay low.
This gives the likes of Dow Chemical and Westlake Chemical a cost advantage versus Asian and European peers that use more-expensive oil-based naphtha as a feedstock. It is of little comfort to E&P companies right now, but their predicament has a silver lining for one important constituency: their customers.
For America's natural-gas producers, even a hurricane would seem like a breath of fresh air.
Overworked air conditioners fueling demand for gas-fired electricity raised gas prices earlier this summer, when futures for the coming winter rallied above $6 per million British thermal units. It didn't last: Now they are under $5. There are implications not just for exploration and production (E&P) companies, but also electricity generators. Investors in chemicals stocks should also take note.
The exploitation of unconventional resources such as shale gas has pushed U.S. reserves and production back up to levels not seen since the early 1970s. Barring hurricanes and an exceptionally cold winter, prices look set to stay weak.
.Usually, the cure for a low gas price is a low gas price, which spurs demand and discourages drilling. Announcing second-quarter results, however, most producers said output would continue rising.
One reason is "use it or lose it" clauses on land leases signed by E&P companies. Some $76 billion was spent on shale gas acquisitions between 2005 and 2009, according to IHS Herold. That is a lot of sunk capital to walk away from.
The Federal Reserve's zero rate policy facilitates this drilling habit by pushing investors toward riskier assets. (I thought zero rate policy is pushing investors toward less risky assets. But now corporate can definitely sell more junk bond. Maybe that's what it meant -- riskier asset) Just last week, for example, Chesapeake Energy raised $2 billion of debt, $400 million more than it wanted originally. Overall, the sector has raised $23.5 billion in mostly high-yield debt so far this year, according to Jonathan Wolff at Credit Suisse, almost as much as for all of 2009. He estimates gas-focused producers will reinvest 165% of cash flow this year.
High spending, fueling cost inflation and excess supply, will squeeze profits. Investors should target those E&P companies producing more oil and natural gas liquids (NGL), which command higher prices relative to gas. Newfield Exploration, for example, is shifting investment towards liquid and, helped by price hedging, is not outspending its cash flow.
Beyond the E&P sector, low gas prices spell trouble for merchant electricity generators: Witness Dynegy's decision to sell out to Blackstone Group on Friday, rather than soldier on. Because gas-fired generation sets the electricity price in most U.S. regions, electricity revenues follow gas prices down even as costs of fuel like coal remain stable. Of the group, Calpine offers some shelter because its power stations are mostly gas-fired, meaning revenues and costs move together, thereby protecting margins .
One group that stands to benefit from low gas prices are U.S. chemicals producers. Ethane is a dominant form of NGL used to make ethylene, a basic chemical building block. As gas producers target more liquids production, so the price of NGLs has fallen and should stay low.
This gives the likes of Dow Chemical and Westlake Chemical a cost advantage versus Asian and European peers that use more-expensive oil-based naphtha as a feedstock. It is of little comfort to E&P companies right now, but their predicament has a silver lining for one important constituency: their customers.
Thursday, August 12, 2010
China's $700 Billion Clean Energy Plan
Source: investopedia
China has recently surpassed the United States to become the world's biggest energy consumer, according to new data from the International Energy Agency. The IEA reported that China consumed 2.252 billion tons of energy equivalents last year - nearly 4% more than the United States. China's breakneck economic growth has required vast amounts of energy, stemming from its heavy industry and infrastructure development. As a result, the Beijing government has taken on the task of balancing economic growth with responsible energy usage among its 1.3 billion people.
Jiang Bing, head of China's National Energy Administration, recently made an announcement that it will submit plans to develop cleaner energy, including nuclear power and gas from unconventional sources, in 2011 to 2020. Beijing plans to spend about 5 trillion yuan, or about $738 billion over next decade, developing cleaner sources of energy. Analysts estimate that China will require nearly 500 billion yuan annually in clean energy spending in order to meet the nation's lofty 2050 renewable goals. China has rejected pressures to cap its growth of fossil fuels consumption or reduce its emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. However, the nation has agreed to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide emitted based on gross domestic product output. This has pushed the country heavily into alternative sources of fuel.
While no formal plan has been adopted, China has already become a huge player in the alternative energy market. The nation has attracted more than $11.5 billion in capital for renewables development in the second quarter alone. This is more than the United States and the European Union combined. China built more wind turbines in 2009 than any other country and may install a record 18 gigawatts worth of wind turbines in 2010. The nation has already seriously committed itself toward its renewable energy goals. With the potential spending by Beijing, investors should take notice and plan accordingly.
Profiting From China's Spending
There are currently 60 nuclear reactors under construction in the world. About one-third of them are being constructed in China. According to the IEA, China had 16 nuclear reactors with a generating capacity of 15,220 MW. The Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF (NYSE:NLR) offers one of the better plays for nuclear energy's growth in China. The ETF holds nearly 40% of its assets in uranium miners, which will continue to benefit long after the reactors are built. The ETF also includes a 27% weighting toward Chinese companies. As Beijing has demonstrated with previous grants and loans, it does prefer domestic corporations. The iShares S&P Global Nuclear Energy Index (Nasdaq:NUCL) is another good choice in the sector.
Low cost of production and Beijing's pro-export driven policies have helped cement China as a premiere solar destination. While the rest of world faces austerity plans, the sun is shining on Chinese solar. Stocks such as Yingli Green Energy (NYSE:YGE) and LDK Solar (NYSE:LDK) will benefit from the continued expansion as will Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy (NYSE:TAN), which has about 30% of its holdings in Chinese companies.
The portion of natural gas in China's energy consumption may increase to more than 8% by 2015, up from 3.9% currently. This increase could see U.S. producers of shale gas seeing green. First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas (NYSE:FCG) offers a concentrated portfolio of natural gas producers.
Finally, as overall plays on the growth of alternative energy, both the PowerShares Global Clean Energy (NYSE:PBD) and Market Vectors Global Alternative Energy ETF (NYSE:GEX) offer diversified ways to invest in this sector.
The Bottom Line
The potential spending from China on renewable energy is staggering. The government wants about 15% of its energy to come from non-fossil fuels by 2020. These renewable demands combined with a quickly growing economy will spur great spending in alternative development. The proceeding ETFs offer a long-term way to play the growth in China's energy use. That said, coal accounted for about 75% of the nation's electricity-generating capacity last year. The Market Vectors Coal ETF (NYSE:KOL) might not be a bad idea either.
China has recently surpassed the United States to become the world's biggest energy consumer, according to new data from the International Energy Agency. The IEA reported that China consumed 2.252 billion tons of energy equivalents last year - nearly 4% more than the United States. China's breakneck economic growth has required vast amounts of energy, stemming from its heavy industry and infrastructure development. As a result, the Beijing government has taken on the task of balancing economic growth with responsible energy usage among its 1.3 billion people.
Jiang Bing, head of China's National Energy Administration, recently made an announcement that it will submit plans to develop cleaner energy, including nuclear power and gas from unconventional sources, in 2011 to 2020. Beijing plans to spend about 5 trillion yuan, or about $738 billion over next decade, developing cleaner sources of energy. Analysts estimate that China will require nearly 500 billion yuan annually in clean energy spending in order to meet the nation's lofty 2050 renewable goals. China has rejected pressures to cap its growth of fossil fuels consumption or reduce its emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. However, the nation has agreed to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide emitted based on gross domestic product output. This has pushed the country heavily into alternative sources of fuel.
While no formal plan has been adopted, China has already become a huge player in the alternative energy market. The nation has attracted more than $11.5 billion in capital for renewables development in the second quarter alone. This is more than the United States and the European Union combined. China built more wind turbines in 2009 than any other country and may install a record 18 gigawatts worth of wind turbines in 2010. The nation has already seriously committed itself toward its renewable energy goals. With the potential spending by Beijing, investors should take notice and plan accordingly.
Profiting From China's Spending
There are currently 60 nuclear reactors under construction in the world. About one-third of them are being constructed in China. According to the IEA, China had 16 nuclear reactors with a generating capacity of 15,220 MW. The Market Vectors Nuclear Energy ETF (NYSE:NLR) offers one of the better plays for nuclear energy's growth in China. The ETF holds nearly 40% of its assets in uranium miners, which will continue to benefit long after the reactors are built. The ETF also includes a 27% weighting toward Chinese companies. As Beijing has demonstrated with previous grants and loans, it does prefer domestic corporations. The iShares S&P Global Nuclear Energy Index (Nasdaq:NUCL) is another good choice in the sector.
Low cost of production and Beijing's pro-export driven policies have helped cement China as a premiere solar destination. While the rest of world faces austerity plans, the sun is shining on Chinese solar. Stocks such as Yingli Green Energy (NYSE:YGE) and LDK Solar (NYSE:LDK) will benefit from the continued expansion as will Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy (NYSE:TAN), which has about 30% of its holdings in Chinese companies.
The portion of natural gas in China's energy consumption may increase to more than 8% by 2015, up from 3.9% currently. This increase could see U.S. producers of shale gas seeing green. First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas (NYSE:FCG) offers a concentrated portfolio of natural gas producers.
Finally, as overall plays on the growth of alternative energy, both the PowerShares Global Clean Energy (NYSE:PBD) and Market Vectors Global Alternative Energy ETF (NYSE:GEX) offer diversified ways to invest in this sector.
The Bottom Line
The potential spending from China on renewable energy is staggering. The government wants about 15% of its energy to come from non-fossil fuels by 2020. These renewable demands combined with a quickly growing economy will spur great spending in alternative development. The proceeding ETFs offer a long-term way to play the growth in China's energy use. That said, coal accounted for about 75% of the nation's electricity-generating capacity last year. The Market Vectors Coal ETF (NYSE:KOL) might not be a bad idea either.
Friday, August 6, 2010
Suntech Announces Preliminary Second Quarter 2010 Financial Results
Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd. (NYSE: STP), the world's largest producer of crystalline silicon solar panels, today announced preliminary financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2010, including the impact of restructuring the Company's Shanghai manufacturing facility and impairment charges related to its investment in Shunda Holdings Co., Ltd., a manufacturer of polysilicon and silicon wafers.
Suntech expects total net revenues for the second quarter of 2010 to be in the range of $620 million to $630 million. Gross margin is expected to be in the range of 17.5% to 18.5%.
Dr. Zhengrong Shi, Suntech's Chairman and CEO, said, "Strong top line results for the second quarter reflect extremely robust global demand for solar. Customers in Europe, Asia, the Middle East and the Americas are increasingly recognizing the benefits of adopting solar and are choosing Suntech as a key partner. Our expected operating results for the second quarter reflect our competitive advantages in these markets."
As a result of the depreciation of the Euro versus the USD during the period, Suntech expects the impact from foreign exchange loss net of hedging gains to be approximately $35 million for the second quarter of 2010, in line with previously announced expectations.
Restructure of Shanghai Facility and Impairment Charges Relating to Shunda Holdings
Due to the rapid cost reduction and improving competitiveness of crystalline silicon solar panels, Suntech has been restructuring operations at its Shanghai facility to focus on the manufacture of crystalline silicon solar cells. As part of the restructuring, Suntech has ceased the manufacture of amorphous silicon thin film solar panels. As a result, Suntech expects to incur a thin film equipment non-cash impairment charge of approximately $50 million to $55 million in the second quarter of 2010.
Suntech also expects to incur non-cash charges of $106 million to $126 million in the second quarter of 2010 related to its investment and prepayments to Shunda. Due to debt obligations, Shunda is currently undergoing significant reorganization.
Commenting on the charges, Dr. Shi said, "While the thin film and Shunda related charges will significantly impact our second quarter financial results, they have no bearing on our core manufacturing operations which are performing very well. Going forward, we will continue to focus on our primary mission of supplying the most reliable and high performance solar panels in the industry."
Suntech expects the total restructuring and impairment charges to have a negative impact of approximately $0.87 to $1.01 per American Depository Share (ADS) in the second quarter of 2010. Inclusive of the restructuring and impairment charges, Suntech expects the net loss for the second quarter of 2010 to be in the range of $147 million to $179 million, which corresponds to negative $0.82 to negative $1.00 per ADS.
The estimates presented in this press release are preliminary and unaudited. Adjustments to the estimates and projections set forth in this press release may be identified as a result of, among other things, finalization of the Company's financial closing procedures for the second quarter of 2010. As such, these estimates and expectations set forth herein may change materially.
对这些太阳能公司真是无语啊~~~
Suntech expects total net revenues for the second quarter of 2010 to be in the range of $620 million to $630 million. Gross margin is expected to be in the range of 17.5% to 18.5%.
Dr. Zhengrong Shi, Suntech's Chairman and CEO, said, "Strong top line results for the second quarter reflect extremely robust global demand for solar. Customers in Europe, Asia, the Middle East and the Americas are increasingly recognizing the benefits of adopting solar and are choosing Suntech as a key partner. Our expected operating results for the second quarter reflect our competitive advantages in these markets."
As a result of the depreciation of the Euro versus the USD during the period, Suntech expects the impact from foreign exchange loss net of hedging gains to be approximately $35 million for the second quarter of 2010, in line with previously announced expectations.
Restructure of Shanghai Facility and Impairment Charges Relating to Shunda Holdings
Due to the rapid cost reduction and improving competitiveness of crystalline silicon solar panels, Suntech has been restructuring operations at its Shanghai facility to focus on the manufacture of crystalline silicon solar cells. As part of the restructuring, Suntech has ceased the manufacture of amorphous silicon thin film solar panels. As a result, Suntech expects to incur a thin film equipment non-cash impairment charge of approximately $50 million to $55 million in the second quarter of 2010.
Suntech also expects to incur non-cash charges of $106 million to $126 million in the second quarter of 2010 related to its investment and prepayments to Shunda. Due to debt obligations, Shunda is currently undergoing significant reorganization.
Commenting on the charges, Dr. Shi said, "While the thin film and Shunda related charges will significantly impact our second quarter financial results, they have no bearing on our core manufacturing operations which are performing very well. Going forward, we will continue to focus on our primary mission of supplying the most reliable and high performance solar panels in the industry."
Suntech expects the total restructuring and impairment charges to have a negative impact of approximately $0.87 to $1.01 per American Depository Share (ADS) in the second quarter of 2010. Inclusive of the restructuring and impairment charges, Suntech expects the net loss for the second quarter of 2010 to be in the range of $147 million to $179 million, which corresponds to negative $0.82 to negative $1.00 per ADS.
The estimates presented in this press release are preliminary and unaudited. Adjustments to the estimates and projections set forth in this press release may be identified as a result of, among other things, finalization of the Company's financial closing procedures for the second quarter of 2010. As such, these estimates and expectations set forth herein may change materially.
对这些太阳能公司真是无语啊~~~
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
Trina Solar Limited (TSL) Investor Guards Against a Pullback with a Collar
Simultaneously selling calls and buying puts to protect a long stock position on TSL
Trina Solar Limited (TSL) has been the center of some accelerated activity on both sides of the options aisle today, with intraday volume soaring to abnormally lofty levels. More specifically, the China-based solar concern has seen about 8,900 calls change hands – more than six times its expected daily volume. In addition, the security has seen close to 10,000 puts traded – more than 11 times the norm.
However, digging deeper indicates that a healthy portion of today's activity may be related in the form of a collar on the stock. In other words, it appears one TSL shareholder may be trying to guard his long position against a potential pullback in the near term.
To implement a collar, the investor will already own at least 100 shares of TSL – meaning he's a shareholder first and an option trader second. In other words, he's still relatively bullish toward the stock, but is nervous about its short-term trajectory.
To lock in a comfortable price to unload his position, if need be, the shareholder can initiate the collar by simultaneously buying a protective put and writing a covered call. This double dose of options acts as a cheaper form of "portfolio insurance," compared to simply buying a lone put – but not without a price.
That said, let's dive into TSL's option activity... In late-morning trading, a block of 8,000 out-of-the-money March 20.50 puts – marked "spread" – traded for the ask price of $0.55, suggesting they were bought. At the same time, an equal amount of out-of-the-money March 24.50 calls – also marked "spread" – changed hands for the bid price of $0.35, implying they were likely sold. Assuming this transaction was, in fact, a collar, the shareholder's "insurance" was purchased for only $0.20 per pair of contracts ($0.55 - $0.35). Sure, the investor could have protected his long stock position by just buying the March 20.50 puts, but at a much steeper price of $0.55 per contract.
Nevertheless, by purchasing the March 20.50 put, the trader is guaranteeing that the least he'll receive for his TSL stake is $20.50 per share, should the equity fall beneath this strike before options expiration on Friday, March 19. However, though the addition of the covered March 24.50 call reduced his initial net debit on the play, it could come back to haunt him in the long run.
Should TSL soar past the $24.50 level by front-month expiration, the investor will be obligated to sell his stake for $24.50 per share – representing a discount to what he'd get on the Street. What's more, the ex-shareholder will have to sit on the sidelines in the wake of an extended rally, missing out on additional portfolio gains.
Technically speaking, the aforementioned collar strategist could be worried about TSL's ongoing battle with its 20-week moving average. Until last week, this trendline – along with its 10-week cohort – had guided the stock higher since mid-March 2009. Now, the security's 20-week moving average could switch roles to act as a technical speed bump for the shares
Trina Solar Limited (TSL) has been the center of some accelerated activity on both sides of the options aisle today, with intraday volume soaring to abnormally lofty levels. More specifically, the China-based solar concern has seen about 8,900 calls change hands – more than six times its expected daily volume. In addition, the security has seen close to 10,000 puts traded – more than 11 times the norm.
However, digging deeper indicates that a healthy portion of today's activity may be related in the form of a collar on the stock. In other words, it appears one TSL shareholder may be trying to guard his long position against a potential pullback in the near term.
To implement a collar, the investor will already own at least 100 shares of TSL – meaning he's a shareholder first and an option trader second. In other words, he's still relatively bullish toward the stock, but is nervous about its short-term trajectory.
To lock in a comfortable price to unload his position, if need be, the shareholder can initiate the collar by simultaneously buying a protective put and writing a covered call. This double dose of options acts as a cheaper form of "portfolio insurance," compared to simply buying a lone put – but not without a price.
That said, let's dive into TSL's option activity... In late-morning trading, a block of 8,000 out-of-the-money March 20.50 puts – marked "spread" – traded for the ask price of $0.55, suggesting they were bought. At the same time, an equal amount of out-of-the-money March 24.50 calls – also marked "spread" – changed hands for the bid price of $0.35, implying they were likely sold. Assuming this transaction was, in fact, a collar, the shareholder's "insurance" was purchased for only $0.20 per pair of contracts ($0.55 - $0.35). Sure, the investor could have protected his long stock position by just buying the March 20.50 puts, but at a much steeper price of $0.55 per contract.
Nevertheless, by purchasing the March 20.50 put, the trader is guaranteeing that the least he'll receive for his TSL stake is $20.50 per share, should the equity fall beneath this strike before options expiration on Friday, March 19. However, though the addition of the covered March 24.50 call reduced his initial net debit on the play, it could come back to haunt him in the long run.
Should TSL soar past the $24.50 level by front-month expiration, the investor will be obligated to sell his stake for $24.50 per share – representing a discount to what he'd get on the Street. What's more, the ex-shareholder will have to sit on the sidelines in the wake of an extended rally, missing out on additional portfolio gains.
Technically speaking, the aforementioned collar strategist could be worried about TSL's ongoing battle with its 20-week moving average. Until last week, this trendline – along with its 10-week cohort – had guided the stock higher since mid-March 2009. Now, the security's 20-week moving average could switch roles to act as a technical speed bump for the shares
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