Event: Germany's federal grid agency (BNetzA) said Tuesday that solar capacity rose by an estimated 3 GW in the first half of the year as solar panel operators rushed to register their units to benefit from higher feed-in tariffs. Operators of solar PV panels need to register their units with the BNetzA to benefit from subsidies paid for solar-generated power.
Implication: Germany's high installation number in 1H10 may just be a remind to investors that higher percentage FIT cut should be anticipated in 2011. According to German "soft cap" policy, 1% will be added to the scheduled FIT digression rate in the beginning of 2011 for each one-GW new installation capacity in excess of the 3.5GW "soft cap" in 2010. While strong and back end loaded demand in 2H10 is likely driven by speculation of further FIT cuts, the implication to 2011 demand is worse. We should see risks of sharp demand slowdown in Germany due to project return deterioration from the first quarter of next year.
http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNews.aspx?xmlpath=RSSFeed/HeadlineNews/ElectricPower/8946360.xml
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
Evolution Solar: U.S. Senate Energy Committee Advances Solar Roofs Bill
Source: Trading Markets
Evolution Solar announced the Energy Committee of the United States Senate approved Sen. Bernie Sanders' (I-Vt.) Ten Million Solar Roofs legislation.
According to a release, the Bill is designed to encourage the installation of 10 million solar systems over ten years.
As currently written, the measure would authorize $250 million for competitive grants in 2012 and additional funding through 2021. According to the Department of Energy, the Bill (when added to existing incentives) could meet or even exceed the goal over the ten year period.
According to Sen. Sanders, the legislation would help finance the installation of up to 40,000 Megawatts of new solar energy. He said that in the process, the cost of generating solar power would fall and the US would become the world's leading market for electricity generated from the sun.
"We at Evolution Solar are watching the progress of Senator Sanders' legislations closely," said Robert Hines, President of EVSO. "If this Bill becomes law, it would be one of the most significant boosts to help solar energy augment fossil fuels in the US and could elevate the US to the leader in the solar energy proliferation."
Evolution Solar is currently building a solar demonstration site in partnership with Texas Southern University, to be located at the University's Houston Campus. The project should help Evolution Solar acquire new business in a sector that is growing to compete in the energy industry
, which includes Transocean, SandRidge Energy, BP and Apache Corporation.
Evolution Solar Corporation commercializes alternative solar energy technologies and related photovoltaic technologies, equipment and next generation appliances.
Evolution Solar announced the Energy Committee of the United States Senate approved Sen. Bernie Sanders' (I-Vt.) Ten Million Solar Roofs legislation.
According to a release, the Bill is designed to encourage the installation of 10 million solar systems over ten years.
As currently written, the measure would authorize $250 million for competitive grants in 2012 and additional funding through 2021. According to the Department of Energy, the Bill (when added to existing incentives) could meet or even exceed the goal over the ten year period.
According to Sen. Sanders, the legislation would help finance the installation of up to 40,000 Megawatts of new solar energy. He said that in the process, the cost of generating solar power would fall and the US would become the world's leading market for electricity generated from the sun.
"We at Evolution Solar are watching the progress of Senator Sanders' legislations closely," said Robert Hines, President of EVSO. "If this Bill becomes law, it would be one of the most significant boosts to help solar energy augment fossil fuels in the US and could elevate the US to the leader in the solar energy proliferation."
Evolution Solar is currently building a solar demonstration site in partnership with Texas Southern University, to be located at the University's Houston Campus. The project should help Evolution Solar acquire new business in a sector that is growing to compete in the energy industry
, which includes Transocean, SandRidge Energy, BP and Apache Corporation.
Evolution Solar Corporation commercializes alternative solar energy technologies and related photovoltaic technologies, equipment and next generation appliances.
Solar Contracts in California to meet Million Solar Roofs goal
Southern California Edison Awards 36 Contracts for Utility-Scale Solar Rooftop Project
ROSEMEAD, Calif., Jul 27, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Southern California Edison (SCE) awarded 36 contracts to independent power producers for a total of nearly 60 megawatts from photovoltaic solar panels that will produce emission-free energy for SCE customers. The panels will be installed on 31 unused rooftops and five ground-mount sites in SCE's service territory.
The solar rooftop project, approved by the California Public Utilities Commission in June 2009, calls for a total of 500 megawatts of solar generating capacity, most of it on otherwise unused large warehouse rooftops. Half of the 500 megawatts will be from independent power producers who respond to SCE's request for offers under competitive solicitations; the remaining 250 megawatts will be owned and operated by SCE. It is expected that this project will create about 1,200 jobs for Southern Californians.
"These contracts make significant strides toward distributed renewable generation for one of the most innovative solar programs in the country," said Marc Ulrich, SCE vice president, Renewable and Alternative Power. "We're working to help California meet its Million Solar Roofs goal and supply even more renewable energy to our customers where and when it's most needed, without the added time and expense to construct major new transmission facilities." The contracts awarded today are the first executed under the competitive solicitations for independent power producers.
SCE believes that its solar rooftop project will be a boon for the solar industry and consumers alike, with the resulting cost per unit significantly more cost effective than more common residential photovoltaic installations in California. Eventually, this could help drive down installation costs of photovoltaic generation for everyone. When complete, the solar panels will cover an area totaling 4 square miles on about 250 otherwise unused warehouse roofs. The total power production will rival a utility-scale power plant, enough electricity to serve 325,000 average homes at a point in time. SCE has already installed panels on three rooftop warehouses in California's Inland Empire that are delivering -- or are in line to deliver -- electricity to the grid.
SCE is the nation's leading utility for renewable energy. In 2009, SCE delivered 13.6 billion kilowatt hours of renewable power to its customers, about 17 percent of its total power portfolio.
ROSEMEAD, Calif., Jul 27, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Southern California Edison (SCE) awarded 36 contracts to independent power producers for a total of nearly 60 megawatts from photovoltaic solar panels that will produce emission-free energy for SCE customers. The panels will be installed on 31 unused rooftops and five ground-mount sites in SCE's service territory.
The solar rooftop project, approved by the California Public Utilities Commission in June 2009, calls for a total of 500 megawatts of solar generating capacity, most of it on otherwise unused large warehouse rooftops. Half of the 500 megawatts will be from independent power producers who respond to SCE's request for offers under competitive solicitations; the remaining 250 megawatts will be owned and operated by SCE. It is expected that this project will create about 1,200 jobs for Southern Californians.
"These contracts make significant strides toward distributed renewable generation for one of the most innovative solar programs in the country," said Marc Ulrich, SCE vice president, Renewable and Alternative Power. "We're working to help California meet its Million Solar Roofs goal and supply even more renewable energy to our customers where and when it's most needed, without the added time and expense to construct major new transmission facilities." The contracts awarded today are the first executed under the competitive solicitations for independent power producers.
SCE believes that its solar rooftop project will be a boon for the solar industry and consumers alike, with the resulting cost per unit significantly more cost effective than more common residential photovoltaic installations in California. Eventually, this could help drive down installation costs of photovoltaic generation for everyone. When complete, the solar panels will cover an area totaling 4 square miles on about 250 otherwise unused warehouse roofs. The total power production will rival a utility-scale power plant, enough electricity to serve 325,000 average homes at a point in time. SCE has already installed panels on three rooftop warehouses in California's Inland Empire that are delivering -- or are in line to deliver -- electricity to the grid.
SCE is the nation's leading utility for renewable energy. In 2009, SCE delivered 13.6 billion kilowatt hours of renewable power to its customers, about 17 percent of its total power portfolio.
Bank Street test was out. Industry upgraded
Source: DB
The announcement from the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision is the news
we’ve all been waiting for (www.bis.org/press/p100726/annex.pdf). Worries over
leverage ratios, funding and liquidity requirements are now much reduced (see
Matt Spick’s Banks Alert, 27 July). We have been underweight Banks since
December 2009 and we are now moving the sector to neutral. We are funding this
upgrade from Food & Beverage which we are cutting to neutral, a sector where
we have been overweight also since December 2009. Year-to-date, Banks have
underperformed the DJ Stoxx 600 by 4.2% and Food & Beverages have
outperformed by 11.2%.
With the stress tests at least now out of the way and the Basel Committee
coming through with a less stringent set of recommendations, we think the bank
sector now looks ripe for a sustainable recovery, sitting on a price-to-tangible book
of only 1.2x 2010E and 1.1x 2011E.
There is nothing particularly wrong with Food & Beverages (earnings revisions
remain strong), but alongside Healthcare it continues to be the most negatively
correlated sector with Banks, and the valuation of Food & Beverages is a lot more demanding than Healthcare. The sector’s PE relative (1.4 on forward earnings) is at a 12-month high and an 18% premium to its 10-year median. This compares with a PE relative of 0.9 for Healthcare, and a 25% discount to its 10-year median.
Earlier this month, we implemented a tactical move to slim down our cyclical
exposure as PMIs were starting to peak and US economic data was falling short of
expectations. Our upgrade to Banks and downgrade to Food & Beverages does
not, in our view, detract from this position – we remain overweight Telecom,
Healthcare and Personal care and underweight Construction and Autos. But with
regulatory risk in the financial sector (and Basel 3 in particular) having been a major drag on market sentiment, this news could help to engender a better performance
from the market overall.
The announcement from the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision is the news
we’ve all been waiting for (www.bis.org/press/p100726/annex.pdf). Worries over
leverage ratios, funding and liquidity requirements are now much reduced (see
Matt Spick’s Banks Alert, 27 July). We have been underweight Banks since
December 2009 and we are now moving the sector to neutral. We are funding this
upgrade from Food & Beverage which we are cutting to neutral, a sector where
we have been overweight also since December 2009. Year-to-date, Banks have
underperformed the DJ Stoxx 600 by 4.2% and Food & Beverages have
outperformed by 11.2%.
With the stress tests at least now out of the way and the Basel Committee
coming through with a less stringent set of recommendations, we think the bank
sector now looks ripe for a sustainable recovery, sitting on a price-to-tangible book
of only 1.2x 2010E and 1.1x 2011E.
There is nothing particularly wrong with Food & Beverages (earnings revisions
remain strong), but alongside Healthcare it continues to be the most negatively
correlated sector with Banks, and the valuation of Food & Beverages is a lot more demanding than Healthcare. The sector’s PE relative (1.4 on forward earnings) is at a 12-month high and an 18% premium to its 10-year median. This compares with a PE relative of 0.9 for Healthcare, and a 25% discount to its 10-year median.
Earlier this month, we implemented a tactical move to slim down our cyclical
exposure as PMIs were starting to peak and US economic data was falling short of
expectations. Our upgrade to Banks and downgrade to Food & Beverages does
not, in our view, detract from this position – we remain overweight Telecom,
Healthcare and Personal care and underweight Construction and Autos. But with
regulatory risk in the financial sector (and Basel 3 in particular) having been a major drag on market sentiment, this news could help to engender a better performance
from the market overall.
Friday, July 23, 2010
Cloudy Horizon Ahead for Solar Module Market in 2011
Source: IMS Research
Despite PV module shipments forecast to increase for 6 consecutive quarters since Q1’09, IMS Research’s latest report warns that the industry’s future is not all bright from Q4’10 and that shipments will decline by close to 10% quarter-on-quarter in Q1’11.
IMS Research predicts the first quarter of 2011 will be very different to the first quarter of 2010 when speculation of additional cuts to incentive schemes drove unusually high demand in Europe and prompted extensive production capacity expansions across the globe. Research Analyst, Sam Wilkinson commented, “We predict the return of classic seasonal installation patterns and forecast that completed installations will decrease by nearly 40% in Q1’11 versus Q4’10. This fall in demand for installations after 31st December 2010, combined with huge capacity expansions certainly poses some problems for the market. We predict a sharp slowdown in module shipments from Q4’10 and PV module prices are forecast to decline once again during the first half of 2011.” IMS Research predicts that PV module prices will decline by 8% in Q1’11.
According to IMS Research, after declining by an average of 10% each quarter in 2009, high demand resulted in relatively small price decreases from Q4’09 to Q1’10. Factory-gate prices of crystalline modules fell just 2% in Euros between the two quarters, despite the German FIT reducing by 9 to 11% as planned at the end of the year. In Q2’10, average crystalline module prices are estimated to have increased by 1% in Euros over the previous quarter. By the end of the year, prices are forecast to fall just 1% from their levels in the final quarter of 2009.
Ongoing detailed quarterly analysis of PV module demand, supply, pricing and installations is available from IMS Research.
Source: IMS Research
Despite PV module shipments forecast to increase for 6 consecutive quarters since Q1’09, IMS Research’s latest report warns that the industry’s future is not all bright from Q4’10 and that shipments will decline by close to 10% quarter-on-quarter in Q1’11.
IMS Research predicts the first quarter of 2011 will be very different to the first quarter of 2010 when speculation of additional cuts to incentive schemes drove unusually high demand in Europe and prompted extensive production capacity expansions across the globe. Research Analyst, Sam Wilkinson commented, “We predict the return of classic seasonal installation patterns and forecast that completed installations will decrease by nearly 40% in Q1’11 versus Q4’10. This fall in demand for installations after 31st December 2010, combined with huge capacity expansions certainly poses some problems for the market. We predict a sharp slowdown in module shipments from Q4’10 and PV module prices are forecast to decline once again during the first half of 2011.” IMS Research predicts that PV module prices will decline by 8% in Q1’11.
According to IMS Research, after declining by an average of 10% each quarter in 2009, high demand resulted in relatively small price decreases from Q4’09 to Q1’10. Factory-gate prices of crystalline modules fell just 2% in Euros between the two quarters, despite the German FIT reducing by 9 to 11% as planned at the end of the year. In Q2’10, average crystalline module prices are estimated to have increased by 1% in Euros over the previous quarter. By the end of the year, prices are forecast to fall just 1% from their levels in the final quarter of 2009.
Ongoing detailed quarterly analysis of PV module demand, supply, pricing and installations is available from IMS Research.
Source: IMS Research
Solarbuzz predicts U.S. solar market could grow tenfold by 2014
Souce: Solarbuzz
Solarbuzz's latest report, "United States PV Market 2010," reveals that the U.S. solar market grew 36% in 2009, responding positively to the economic downfall. These results rank the country's solar photovoltaic market third largest in the world, behind Germany and Italy.
"2009 marked a year of transformation for the U.S. solar market," said Craig Stevens, president of Solarbuzz. "Changes in the roles of utility companies, new market entrants, lower cost PV modules from Asia and new direct-to-market approaches became more prevalent. As a result, solar companies doing business in the States will need to adapt quickly to these challenges while also being responsive to frequent adjustments in the fragmented incentive and regulatory environment."
California is still driving the solar power market in the U.S., accounting for 53% of on-grid installations in 2009 and maintaining this position into 2010. While SunPower remained leader for PV installed, Chevron Energy and SPG Solar moved up to the number position in California in 2009. Installers REC Solar, SolarCity and Real Goods Solar led the residential field.
The large number of state policy initiatives has created a fragmented regulations and incentive environment. However, states are doing their job of stimulating local markets. The dispersed funding sources mean the U.S. market does not does not carry the same level of risk compared to countries driven by a single national policy. Federal incentives are therefore due to play a much larger role in stimulating demand into 2012. Solarbuzz forecasts the market will grow to between 4.5-5.5GW depending on this given scenario. This is an average annual growth rate of 30% per annum.
The U.S. order book for photovoltaic systems currently stands at 12GW.
Solarbuzz's latest report, "United States PV Market 2010," reveals that the U.S. solar market grew 36% in 2009, responding positively to the economic downfall. These results rank the country's solar photovoltaic market third largest in the world, behind Germany and Italy.
"2009 marked a year of transformation for the U.S. solar market," said Craig Stevens, president of Solarbuzz. "Changes in the roles of utility companies, new market entrants, lower cost PV modules from Asia and new direct-to-market approaches became more prevalent. As a result, solar companies doing business in the States will need to adapt quickly to these challenges while also being responsive to frequent adjustments in the fragmented incentive and regulatory environment."
California is still driving the solar power market in the U.S., accounting for 53% of on-grid installations in 2009 and maintaining this position into 2010. While SunPower remained leader for PV installed, Chevron Energy and SPG Solar moved up to the number position in California in 2009. Installers REC Solar, SolarCity and Real Goods Solar led the residential field.
The large number of state policy initiatives has created a fragmented regulations and incentive environment. However, states are doing their job of stimulating local markets. The dispersed funding sources mean the U.S. market does not does not carry the same level of risk compared to countries driven by a single national policy. Federal incentives are therefore due to play a much larger role in stimulating demand into 2012. Solarbuzz forecasts the market will grow to between 4.5-5.5GW depending on this given scenario. This is an average annual growth rate of 30% per annum.
The U.S. order book for photovoltaic systems currently stands at 12GW.
Applied Materials' Thin-Film Exit
Source: WSJ
Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) plans to restructure its energy and environmental business, a move expected to cost up to $425 million and affect 500 jobs, as the company shifts the segment's focus and seeks to bring it back to profitability in fiscal 2011.
The restructuring is an admission that Applied Materials' previous effort to focus on cheaper but less efficient thin-film solar panel products was misplaced. Instead, the Santa Clara, Calif., semiconductor-equipment maker said Wednesday that it will focus on crystalline silicon solar and advanced energy, including light emitting diode technology.
"Today's actions are designed to align our thin-film infrastructure with market realities," Chief Financial Officer George Davis said on a conference call. The company also raised its earnings guidance for the third quarter by a couple pennies, excluding certain charges.
Applied Materials, whose traditional business is focused on making tools used by semiconductor manufacturers, entered thin-film solar panels in an attempt to take share away from devoted crystalline silicon panel makers. The business suffered mightily, though, as silicon costs plummeted and Applied Materials' core customer base of start-up companies needing full-service assistance dried up in the economic downturn.
Patrick Ho of Stifel Nicolaus & Co. said that while some of the energy and environmental unit's woes are market-related, "I also think that it was a failed venture from Applied because of its own internal strategic direction." After all, he said, there are other successful thin-film solar companies, such as First Solar Inc. (FSLR).
Applied Materials, which recently had about 13,000 employees globally, plans to discontinue sales to new customers for some thin-film solar panel equipment. It also intends to sell its low-emissivity architectural-glass coatings line while continuing development in emerging technologies in "smart" electrochromic glass.
The company's shares added 9 cents to $12.43, a rather nondescript reaction as analysts said the company's decision had been a long time coming.
"It was a huge drag on profitability," RBC Capital Markets analyst Mahesh Sanganeria said of the energy and environmental segment.
CFO Davis said the company now believes the Energy and Environmental Solutions unit's break-even point will be at or slightly below $700 million, with the company planning to cut annual operating expenses by $100 million over the next three quarters.
Lowering the break-even point is important psychologically, said Gary Hsueh, analyst at Oppenheimer & Co., but he warned that the actual magnitude of the restructuring "may be a little bit lackluster." Hsueh estimates that the $100 million in annualized cost savings only adds about 7 cents a share.
Applied Materials will book restructuring-related charges of $375 million to $425 million, or 18 cents to 21 cents a share, including 14 cents a share in the fiscal third quarter ended June 30. That total charge includes $240 million in inventory charges and another $95 million in equipment and asset impairments, as much of the material used for the SunFab panels isn't easily transferable to other product lines. Excluding the charges, Applied Materials sees per-share earnings between 24 cents and 28 cents for the third quarter, 2 cents above its prior view. Analysts, on average, projected third-quarter earnings of 24 cents a share, according to Thomson Reuters.
Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) plans to restructure its energy and environmental business, a move expected to cost up to $425 million and affect 500 jobs, as the company shifts the segment's focus and seeks to bring it back to profitability in fiscal 2011.
The restructuring is an admission that Applied Materials' previous effort to focus on cheaper but less efficient thin-film solar panel products was misplaced. Instead, the Santa Clara, Calif., semiconductor-equipment maker said Wednesday that it will focus on crystalline silicon solar and advanced energy, including light emitting diode technology.
"Today's actions are designed to align our thin-film infrastructure with market realities," Chief Financial Officer George Davis said on a conference call. The company also raised its earnings guidance for the third quarter by a couple pennies, excluding certain charges.
Applied Materials, whose traditional business is focused on making tools used by semiconductor manufacturers, entered thin-film solar panels in an attempt to take share away from devoted crystalline silicon panel makers. The business suffered mightily, though, as silicon costs plummeted and Applied Materials' core customer base of start-up companies needing full-service assistance dried up in the economic downturn.
Patrick Ho of Stifel Nicolaus & Co. said that while some of the energy and environmental unit's woes are market-related, "I also think that it was a failed venture from Applied because of its own internal strategic direction." After all, he said, there are other successful thin-film solar companies, such as First Solar Inc. (FSLR).
Applied Materials, which recently had about 13,000 employees globally, plans to discontinue sales to new customers for some thin-film solar panel equipment. It also intends to sell its low-emissivity architectural-glass coatings line while continuing development in emerging technologies in "smart" electrochromic glass.
The company's shares added 9 cents to $12.43, a rather nondescript reaction as analysts said the company's decision had been a long time coming.
"It was a huge drag on profitability," RBC Capital Markets analyst Mahesh Sanganeria said of the energy and environmental segment.
CFO Davis said the company now believes the Energy and Environmental Solutions unit's break-even point will be at or slightly below $700 million, with the company planning to cut annual operating expenses by $100 million over the next three quarters.
Lowering the break-even point is important psychologically, said Gary Hsueh, analyst at Oppenheimer & Co., but he warned that the actual magnitude of the restructuring "may be a little bit lackluster." Hsueh estimates that the $100 million in annualized cost savings only adds about 7 cents a share.
Applied Materials will book restructuring-related charges of $375 million to $425 million, or 18 cents to 21 cents a share, including 14 cents a share in the fiscal third quarter ended June 30. That total charge includes $240 million in inventory charges and another $95 million in equipment and asset impairments, as much of the material used for the SunFab panels isn't easily transferable to other product lines. Excluding the charges, Applied Materials sees per-share earnings between 24 cents and 28 cents for the third quarter, 2 cents above its prior view. Analysts, on average, projected third-quarter earnings of 24 cents a share, according to Thomson Reuters.
Rutgers' Chinese Solar Panels Show Clean-Energy Shift
Souce: Bloomberg
At Rutgers University in New Jersey, 7,600 panels convert sunlight into electricity, saving some $200,000 in energy costs this year in the biggest solar-power experiment at a U.S. college.
Yingli Green Energy Holding Co., China’s second-largest solar-panel maker, supplied the $10 million project. Yingli is one of several Chinese manufacturers that have slashed costs to reduce global prices for solar modules by about 50 percent in two years. The drive made them more affordable for buyers from Rutgers to Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the biggest U.S. retailer.
“It’s all about economics,” said Chief Executive Officer Al Bucknam of SunDurance Energy, the South Plainfield, New Jersey, installer that picked Yingli over Western competitors on price and helped sell the deal to Rutgers as a money-saver.
China is slashing prices and moving to dominate solar energy in the way Japanese manufacturers ruled consumer electronics decades ago. The price declines inch the cost of solar energy toward what’s called grid parity, or renewable electricity at the same prices charged for conventional power.
“The ability of the Chinese to manufacture at scale is a very big reason why the cost of these panels has come down,” said Kathleen A. McGinty at venture capital firm Element Partners in Radnor, Pennsylvania. “They’re a big part of the reason why we can even start to talk about grid parity.”
Price Parity
Sun power may become as cheap as the retail price of grid- delivered electricity in certain markets as early as 2013, according to a June 29 report by Pike Research, a Boulder, Colorado, clean-energy consultant.
The European Photovoltaic Industry Association, a trade group, forecasts parity by 2010 in some southern parts of Italy, by 2012 in several regions of Spain, and 2015 in Germany.
Solar installations are spreading worldwide as governments from China to the U.K. and Italy offer subsidies, costs fall and cities seek to create jobs. Rutgers got a New Jersey state grant for half its solar plant costs, which included installation and an undisclosed price for the Yingli panels. Wal-Mart last month finished installing solar modules on two California stores that provide as much as 30 percent of their electricity.
China’s manufacturers grabbed 43 percent of the global photovoltaic-panel market in the last six years, pricing products as much as 20 percent cheaper than European offerings, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Chinese firms shipped 3,300 megawatts of panels worth $6.6 billion last year, enough to power about 2.6 million U.S. homes.
Asia’s ‘Vast Factories’
“The vast factories of Asia will drive prices down, just as they did with consumer electronics,” said Jenny Chase, head of solar energy analysis for New Energy Finance, the London- based research firm owned by Bloomberg LP.
The downside for manufacturers is falling panel prices. That, together with Spain and Germany cutting subsidies for clean power, has sent investors away from most solar stocks.
China’s largest panel producers, Suntech Power Holdings Co., Yingli, and Trina Solar Ltd., have all dropped on the New York Stock Exchange this year. Yingli lost 25 percent, Trina 13 percent and Suntech 37 percent in the year through July 21. The MSCI World Index fell just 6.9 percent in the period.
Some foreign competitors from Germany’s Solarworld AG and Q-Cells SE to Marlboro, Massachusetts-based Evergreen Solar Inc. fared worse. Solarworld has lost 29 percent in value, Q-Cells dropped 50 percent and Evergreen plunged 56 percent.
State-controlled China Development Bank Corp. so far this year has extended $24 billion in loans to Yingli, Trina Solar, Suntech, Solarfun Power Holdings Co. and others, according to data collected by New Energy Finance. That exceeds the $18.2 billion the U.S. government disbursed in fiscal stimulus funds for clean-energy companies through May 2010.
China’s Subsidies
Skeptics argue China’s solar industry is thriving on subsidies that obscure the true costs of solar, according to Kenneth Dewoskin, senior director at Deloitte China. Suntech and Trina didn’t respond to requests for interviews.
Min Li, a Hong Kong-based energy analyst at Yuanta Securities, said Chinese solar stocks are now attractively priced. He rates Yingli and Suntech as a “buy.” Overall, analysts favor Chinese over Western manufacturers.
Fourteen of 27 analysts tracked by Bloomberg recommend buying Yingli, compared with one “sell” rating. For Trina, all 22 analysts following the stock recommend buying it, while Suntech has 11 buy ratings and 8 sell recommendations.
In contrast, three analysts covering Q-cells rate the company a buy compared with 22 a sell. Evergreen has three buy ratings and 7 sell ratings. Solarworld is almost even, with 14 buys and 12 sells.
‘Just a Start’
China’s dominance in solar panels started in cities that subsidize clean energy. Baoding, a city of 1 million a two- hour’s drive south of Beijing, has used subsidies to attract about 200 renewable-energy companies including Yingli, whose panels power 80 percent of the local street lights.
“That’s just a start,” said Lian Shujun, vice director of the city’s renewable initiative.
China Development Bank lent a combined 116 billion yuan ($17 billion) this year to Yingli, Suntech and Trina while the central government’s Golden Sun program subsidizes as much as 70 percent of the cost of 294 solar projects. Beijing plans to install $1 billion of solar panels around the capital to heat water and light offices in 2012.
“China is beginning to think about what options are out there in terms of its new energy policy,” said Lu Yeung, a Hong Kong-based China energy analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “It’s not just fossil fuels, but how to make a green economy that is also a growth driver.”
‘Inevitable Choice’
The government is just getting started pushing solar, said Jason Liu, who quit his job at McKinsey & Co. to become a vice president at Yingli last year.
“Developing renewable energy is an inevitable choice,” he said.
China overtook the U.S. as the world’s biggest energy user last year, according to the International Energy Agency. The country is looking to firms like Yingli for renewable energy to reduce dependence on oil imports and coal.
China, the world’s biggest coal consumer, burns the commodity to generate about 80 percent of its power. The IEA projects China’s oil imports will almost quadruple by 2030 from 2006 levels.
China spent $34.6 billion on clean-fuel projects in 2009, almost double the $18.6 billion investment by the U.S., New Energy Finance estimated. China installed 160 megawatts of solar capacity last year, a four-fold increase from a year earlier, and may almost double it again this year to 311 megawatts, according to the research firm.
An Opportunity
Some European and U.S. companies view China’s solar growth as an opportunity. Germany’s Q-Cells last year agreed to a manufacturing joint venture with China’s LDK Solar Co.
Tempe, Arizona-based First Solar Inc., the world’s biggest solar company by market value, has agreed with the government of Ordos, Inner Mongolia, to build a 2-gigawatt plant.
Such opportunities are fading as China acquires the expertise to do large-scale solar projects itself, Frank Haugwitz, a Beijing-based renewable energy consultant, said in a telephone interview.
“It’s only a matter of time, one or two years,” he said.
At Rutgers University in New Jersey, 7,600 panels convert sunlight into electricity, saving some $200,000 in energy costs this year in the biggest solar-power experiment at a U.S. college.
Yingli Green Energy Holding Co., China’s second-largest solar-panel maker, supplied the $10 million project. Yingli is one of several Chinese manufacturers that have slashed costs to reduce global prices for solar modules by about 50 percent in two years. The drive made them more affordable for buyers from Rutgers to Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the biggest U.S. retailer.
“It’s all about economics,” said Chief Executive Officer Al Bucknam of SunDurance Energy, the South Plainfield, New Jersey, installer that picked Yingli over Western competitors on price and helped sell the deal to Rutgers as a money-saver.
China is slashing prices and moving to dominate solar energy in the way Japanese manufacturers ruled consumer electronics decades ago. The price declines inch the cost of solar energy toward what’s called grid parity, or renewable electricity at the same prices charged for conventional power.
“The ability of the Chinese to manufacture at scale is a very big reason why the cost of these panels has come down,” said Kathleen A. McGinty at venture capital firm Element Partners in Radnor, Pennsylvania. “They’re a big part of the reason why we can even start to talk about grid parity.”
Price Parity
Sun power may become as cheap as the retail price of grid- delivered electricity in certain markets as early as 2013, according to a June 29 report by Pike Research, a Boulder, Colorado, clean-energy consultant.
The European Photovoltaic Industry Association, a trade group, forecasts parity by 2010 in some southern parts of Italy, by 2012 in several regions of Spain, and 2015 in Germany.
Solar installations are spreading worldwide as governments from China to the U.K. and Italy offer subsidies, costs fall and cities seek to create jobs. Rutgers got a New Jersey state grant for half its solar plant costs, which included installation and an undisclosed price for the Yingli panels. Wal-Mart last month finished installing solar modules on two California stores that provide as much as 30 percent of their electricity.
China’s manufacturers grabbed 43 percent of the global photovoltaic-panel market in the last six years, pricing products as much as 20 percent cheaper than European offerings, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Chinese firms shipped 3,300 megawatts of panels worth $6.6 billion last year, enough to power about 2.6 million U.S. homes.
Asia’s ‘Vast Factories’
“The vast factories of Asia will drive prices down, just as they did with consumer electronics,” said Jenny Chase, head of solar energy analysis for New Energy Finance, the London- based research firm owned by Bloomberg LP.
The downside for manufacturers is falling panel prices. That, together with Spain and Germany cutting subsidies for clean power, has sent investors away from most solar stocks.
China’s largest panel producers, Suntech Power Holdings Co., Yingli, and Trina Solar Ltd., have all dropped on the New York Stock Exchange this year. Yingli lost 25 percent, Trina 13 percent and Suntech 37 percent in the year through July 21. The MSCI World Index fell just 6.9 percent in the period.
Some foreign competitors from Germany’s Solarworld AG and Q-Cells SE to Marlboro, Massachusetts-based Evergreen Solar Inc. fared worse. Solarworld has lost 29 percent in value, Q-Cells dropped 50 percent and Evergreen plunged 56 percent.
State-controlled China Development Bank Corp. so far this year has extended $24 billion in loans to Yingli, Trina Solar, Suntech, Solarfun Power Holdings Co. and others, according to data collected by New Energy Finance. That exceeds the $18.2 billion the U.S. government disbursed in fiscal stimulus funds for clean-energy companies through May 2010.
China’s Subsidies
Skeptics argue China’s solar industry is thriving on subsidies that obscure the true costs of solar, according to Kenneth Dewoskin, senior director at Deloitte China. Suntech and Trina didn’t respond to requests for interviews.
Min Li, a Hong Kong-based energy analyst at Yuanta Securities, said Chinese solar stocks are now attractively priced. He rates Yingli and Suntech as a “buy.” Overall, analysts favor Chinese over Western manufacturers.
Fourteen of 27 analysts tracked by Bloomberg recommend buying Yingli, compared with one “sell” rating. For Trina, all 22 analysts following the stock recommend buying it, while Suntech has 11 buy ratings and 8 sell recommendations.
In contrast, three analysts covering Q-cells rate the company a buy compared with 22 a sell. Evergreen has three buy ratings and 7 sell ratings. Solarworld is almost even, with 14 buys and 12 sells.
‘Just a Start’
China’s dominance in solar panels started in cities that subsidize clean energy. Baoding, a city of 1 million a two- hour’s drive south of Beijing, has used subsidies to attract about 200 renewable-energy companies including Yingli, whose panels power 80 percent of the local street lights.
“That’s just a start,” said Lian Shujun, vice director of the city’s renewable initiative.
China Development Bank lent a combined 116 billion yuan ($17 billion) this year to Yingli, Suntech and Trina while the central government’s Golden Sun program subsidizes as much as 70 percent of the cost of 294 solar projects. Beijing plans to install $1 billion of solar panels around the capital to heat water and light offices in 2012.
“China is beginning to think about what options are out there in terms of its new energy policy,” said Lu Yeung, a Hong Kong-based China energy analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “It’s not just fossil fuels, but how to make a green economy that is also a growth driver.”
‘Inevitable Choice’
The government is just getting started pushing solar, said Jason Liu, who quit his job at McKinsey & Co. to become a vice president at Yingli last year.
“Developing renewable energy is an inevitable choice,” he said.
China overtook the U.S. as the world’s biggest energy user last year, according to the International Energy Agency. The country is looking to firms like Yingli for renewable energy to reduce dependence on oil imports and coal.
China, the world’s biggest coal consumer, burns the commodity to generate about 80 percent of its power. The IEA projects China’s oil imports will almost quadruple by 2030 from 2006 levels.
China spent $34.6 billion on clean-fuel projects in 2009, almost double the $18.6 billion investment by the U.S., New Energy Finance estimated. China installed 160 megawatts of solar capacity last year, a four-fold increase from a year earlier, and may almost double it again this year to 311 megawatts, according to the research firm.
An Opportunity
Some European and U.S. companies view China’s solar growth as an opportunity. Germany’s Q-Cells last year agreed to a manufacturing joint venture with China’s LDK Solar Co.
Tempe, Arizona-based First Solar Inc., the world’s biggest solar company by market value, has agreed with the government of Ordos, Inner Mongolia, to build a 2-gigawatt plant.
Such opportunities are fading as China acquires the expertise to do large-scale solar projects itself, Frank Haugwitz, a Beijing-based renewable energy consultant, said in a telephone interview.
“It’s only a matter of time, one or two years,” he said.
Monday, July 19, 2010
賣方主導力強 下半年太陽能重返上肥下瘦盛況
2010年第3季亞洲太陽能供應鏈廠商認為，德國市場第4季將因2011年元月1日補助下砍而產生拉貨潮，因此，第3季寧願囤貨也不降價，導致下半年賣方市場有相當大的機會主導市場，重返2008年前的「上肥下瘦」的情況，只是難回當年的暴利情況。
除了供應鏈積極備庫存，導致亞洲業者包括兩岸的矽晶圓廠及太陽能電池廠均出現缺貨的現象，另外，亞洲業者也有心理準備，即使第3季需求量不足，也將以備庫存因應，因為第4季需求回升的機率高，所以下半年價格自難撼動。
太陽能業者說，下半年預估也將持續維持賣方主導市場的情況，但該情況僅出現在料源、矽晶圓及電池端，而歐洲模組廠也因為上游電池報價不降或上調，使其毛利進而被侵蝕的機率亦大增。
該情況也使台系太陽能電池端難得回到2008年第3季以前的「賣方市場」，太陽能業者坦言，下半年仍是維持訂單滿載的動作，而且由於電池供不應求，其實客戶端要求降價的次數及強烈度不如想像多，多數仍要求多給點貨。
太陽能業者表示，其實目前整個產業供應鏈產出的瓶頸在於太陽能矽晶圓端，尤其擴產的速度不及需求成長的速度，而矽晶圓報價在第3季也跟著起漲，這使得電池廠不得不跟進。
另外，近期上游多晶矽料源的取得也出現困難的現象，雖然國際現貨市場因為缺貨已經導致報價從過往每公斤50~55美元，升到55美元左右，近期火熱程度相較其它地區高的大陸市場更出現接近60美元的水準。
2009年金融風暴後，太陽光電由賣方市場轉為買方市場，舉凡季節性更換，往往可以聽到亞洲供應端承諾降價，以達到客戶的預期，2009年上半更出現受到民眾預期心理的影響，等待最低價格的出現，供應端幾番降價都無法促使需求明顯成長。
但2010年上半受到市佔率5成的德國市場因為計劃在下半年下砍補助費率，使補助下砍前的安裝量不斷創新高，因而呈現供不應求的情況，亞洲區報價也跟著逐季攀升，市場預估，受上述因素的影響，下半年持續維持賣方主導市場的機率也高，但從目前多晶矽的報價及供給量來看，產業鏈仍難回到2008年般的暴利時代。
Source: Digitimes
除了供應鏈積極備庫存，導致亞洲業者包括兩岸的矽晶圓廠及太陽能電池廠均出現缺貨的現象，另外，亞洲業者也有心理準備，即使第3季需求量不足，也將以備庫存因應，因為第4季需求回升的機率高，所以下半年價格自難撼動。
太陽能業者說，下半年預估也將持續維持賣方主導市場的情況，但該情況僅出現在料源、矽晶圓及電池端，而歐洲模組廠也因為上游電池報價不降或上調，使其毛利進而被侵蝕的機率亦大增。
該情況也使台系太陽能電池端難得回到2008年第3季以前的「賣方市場」，太陽能業者坦言，下半年仍是維持訂單滿載的動作，而且由於電池供不應求，其實客戶端要求降價的次數及強烈度不如想像多，多數仍要求多給點貨。
太陽能業者表示，其實目前整個產業供應鏈產出的瓶頸在於太陽能矽晶圓端，尤其擴產的速度不及需求成長的速度，而矽晶圓報價在第3季也跟著起漲，這使得電池廠不得不跟進。
另外，近期上游多晶矽料源的取得也出現困難的現象，雖然國際現貨市場因為缺貨已經導致報價從過往每公斤50~55美元，升到55美元左右，近期火熱程度相較其它地區高的大陸市場更出現接近60美元的水準。
2009年金融風暴後，太陽光電由賣方市場轉為買方市場，舉凡季節性更換，往往可以聽到亞洲供應端承諾降價，以達到客戶的預期，2009年上半更出現受到民眾預期心理的影響，等待最低價格的出現，供應端幾番降價都無法促使需求明顯成長。
但2010年上半受到市佔率5成的德國市場因為計劃在下半年下砍補助費率，使補助下砍前的安裝量不斷創新高，因而呈現供不應求的情況，亞洲區報價也跟著逐季攀升，市場預估，受上述因素的影響，下半年持續維持賣方主導市場的機率也高，但從目前多晶矽的報價及供給量來看，產業鏈仍難回到2008年般的暴利時代。
Source: Digitimes
歐洲太陽能模組3Q報價季降10% 毛利備受挑戰
原本雄心壯志要在第3季大展身手的歐系具代表性太陽能模組廠，因亞洲太陽能電池廠第3季報價未跌反漲，使部分業者一度對外中止8月報價，但近期美國Intersolar展結束後，傳來歐洲模組廠已通知客戶，第3季維持原有的季降10%報價，顯示歐洲模組廠已抱持著下半年毛利空間將壓縮的想法。
雖然在第2季中即言明第3季將降價10%的德國太陽能模組廠，因受到主力代工的亞洲區第3季太陽能電池報價未下滑、甚至小幅漲價，及德國補助未在7月1日定案的影響，一度針對8月的報價喊卡，通知客戶必須觀察市況後再做決定，當時市場認為德國模組廠調漲價格的機率高。
但在德國下半年補助案確定第3季砍13%、第4季砍16%後，上週完成的美國Intersolar展中傳出，8月停止報價的德國模組業者，幾經掙扎，已通知客戶，第3季整季的報價將維持第2季初的承諾，不做變更。
這些德國模組廠同樣季砍10%，即歐洲一線太陽能模組報價每瓦降0.15~0.2歐元、平均約降10%的水準，第3季平均報價在每瓦1.73~1.78歐元。
但因歐洲諸多太陽能模組廠考量到生產成本的考量，多數委外亞洲地區代工太陽能電池，尤其又以台灣為主要代工大本營，但部分台灣電池業者第3季的現貨及短約報價，由第2季末的每瓦1.35美元升至1.4美元以上，相對將使歐洲太陽能模組廠的成本提升。
太陽能業者表示，實際上歐洲業者已與亞洲代工廠進行協商，但亞洲業者，尤其是台灣的太陽能電池廠，因為接單情況良好且持續供不應求，對於歐洲客戶要求的降價心有餘而力不足，特別是台系業者包括茂迪、昱晶、新日光、昇陽科、益通等更因為客戶端的要求正積極擴大產能。
太陽能業者認為，歐洲模組大廠諸多為德系業者，因在該領域耕耘的時間較久，品牌知名度較高，其報價向來比亞洲模組來得高，而這次德國下砍補助，迫這些德系模組業者失去當本土廠的優勢，被迫降價以求，與其它國際廠爭食非德國市場。
因此，即使上游電池材料難跟著終端需求的要求跟著一起降價，但歐洲模組業者考量到德國下砍補助後、若模組報價不降，恐難啟發需求，只好忍痛接受毛利空間可能因而被擠壓的壓力。
Source: Digitimes
雖然在第2季中即言明第3季將降價10%的德國太陽能模組廠，因受到主力代工的亞洲區第3季太陽能電池報價未下滑、甚至小幅漲價，及德國補助未在7月1日定案的影響，一度針對8月的報價喊卡，通知客戶必須觀察市況後再做決定，當時市場認為德國模組廠調漲價格的機率高。
但在德國下半年補助案確定第3季砍13%、第4季砍16%後，上週完成的美國Intersolar展中傳出，8月停止報價的德國模組業者，幾經掙扎，已通知客戶，第3季整季的報價將維持第2季初的承諾，不做變更。
這些德國模組廠同樣季砍10%，即歐洲一線太陽能模組報價每瓦降0.15~0.2歐元、平均約降10%的水準，第3季平均報價在每瓦1.73~1.78歐元。
但因歐洲諸多太陽能模組廠考量到生產成本的考量，多數委外亞洲地區代工太陽能電池，尤其又以台灣為主要代工大本營，但部分台灣電池業者第3季的現貨及短約報價，由第2季末的每瓦1.35美元升至1.4美元以上，相對將使歐洲太陽能模組廠的成本提升。
太陽能業者表示，實際上歐洲業者已與亞洲代工廠進行協商，但亞洲業者，尤其是台灣的太陽能電池廠，因為接單情況良好且持續供不應求，對於歐洲客戶要求的降價心有餘而力不足，特別是台系業者包括茂迪、昱晶、新日光、昇陽科、益通等更因為客戶端的要求正積極擴大產能。
太陽能業者認為，歐洲模組大廠諸多為德系業者，因在該領域耕耘的時間較久，品牌知名度較高，其報價向來比亞洲模組來得高，而這次德國下砍補助，迫這些德系模組業者失去當本土廠的優勢，被迫降價以求，與其它國際廠爭食非德國市場。
因此，即使上游電池材料難跟著終端需求的要求跟著一起降價，但歐洲模組業者考量到德國下砍補助後、若模組報價不降，恐難啟發需求，只好忍痛接受毛利空間可能因而被擠壓的壓力。
Source: Digitimes
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